IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/empiri/v49y2022i4d10.1007_s10663-022-09552-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sustainability gap of public debt: importance of interest rates and a new decomposition with premia

Author

Listed:
  • Elmar Dönnebrink

    (Bundesministerium der Finanzen (BMF))

  • Nils Grevenbrock

    (Bundesministerium der Finanzen (BMF))

Abstract

Sustainability gaps (S2 indicators) are frequently used in national and international reports to assess the sustainability of public finances. For instance, in the European Commission’s Debt Sustainability Monitor (DSM) the indicators are analyzed in comparisons across (policy) scenarios, countries and time. The report’s findings play a crucial role in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact and the European Semester. As a result, sustainability gaps have a significant indirect influence on policy decisions. In this paper, we analyze two non-transparent properties of these indicators. First, the response of these indicators to changes in the interest rate-growth (r-g) differential is not readily predictable in terms of both strength and direction. Second, in our examples for low values of r-g (in a range of 0.5%), highly uncertain projections for distant periods after 2070 explain about 80% of the indicators’ values. To address these problems, we develop a new decomposition that takes into account the notion of premia (Reis 2021) and hence allows for a more transparent discussion of the sustainability of public debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Elmar Dönnebrink & Nils Grevenbrock, 2022. "Sustainability gap of public debt: importance of interest rates and a new decomposition with premia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1009-1030, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:49:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10663-022-09552-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-022-09552-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10663-022-09552-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10663-022-09552-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw, 2023. "Market Power in Neoclassical Growth Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 572-596.
    2. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    3. Mr. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Peters, Fabian & Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Reeker, Gerrit, 2019. "Ehrbare Staaten? Update 2018: Die Nachhaltigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Europa," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 144, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    5. Bayer, Christian & Born, Benjamin & Luetticke, Ralph, 2023. "The liquidity channel of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 86-117.
    6. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "The constraint on public debt when r," Discussion Papers 2111, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    7. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "The constraint on public dept when r," BIS Working Papers 939, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    9. Torben M. Andersen, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability and Low Government Borrowing Rates," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 31-34, April.
    10. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Robbins, Jacob A. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2021. "Kaldor and Piketty’s facts: The rise of monopoly power in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 19-38.
    11. Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Timo Wochner, 2022. "How to Consolidate Public Debt in Germany?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 23(01), pages 17-23, January.
    12. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Debrun, Xavier & Willems, Tim & Wyplosz, Charles, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 14010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 10/02, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Werding, Martin & Läpple, Benjamin & Schirner, Sebastian, 2024. "Modellrechnungen für den Sechsten Tragfähigkeitsbericht des BMF," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 33, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Kersten Kellermann & Carsten-Henning Schlag, 2021. "Überakkumulation oder Investitionslücke? [Over Accumulation or Investment Gap?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(12), pages 964-970, December.
    3. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Elenev, Vadim & Landvoigt, Tim & Shultz, Patrick, 2021. "Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    6. Anderson, Ronald W., 2020. "Who bears risk in China's non-financial enterprise debt?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118879, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates, 2023. "What Happened to US Business Dynamism?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(8), pages 2059-2124.
    8. Julia Estefania‐Flores & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2023. "Worse than you think: Public debt forecast errors in advanced and developing economies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 685-714, April.
    9. Leandro Andrián & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "Past the Tipping Point? Assessing Debt Overhang in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 8, pages 183-196, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Auerbach, Alan J & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2017. "Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt90t9q1mx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    11. Mr. Antonio David & Natalija Novta, 2016. "A Balancing Act: Reform Options for Paraguay’s Fiscal Responsibility Law," IMF Working Papers 2016/226, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Andreea Stoian & Filip Iorgulescu, 2016. "The study of public debt: which are the distinctions between the emerging and advanced economies in the European Union?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 167-196, February.
    13. Wenzlaff, Ferdinand & Kimmich, Christian & Richters, Oliver, 2014. "Theoretische Zugänge eines Wachstumszwangs in der Geldwirtschaft," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 45, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    14. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2023. "Post COVID‐19 exit strategies and emerging markets economic challenges," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-34, February.
    15. Neaime, Simon, 2015. "Sustainability of budget deficits and public debts in selected European Union countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21.
    16. Lankester-Campos, Valerie & Loaiza-Marín, Kerry & Monge-Badilla, Carlos, 2020. "Assessing public debt sustainability for Costa Rica using the fiscal reaction function," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    17. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2023. "Public Debt Bubbles In Heterogeneous Agent Models With Tail Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 491-509, May.
    18. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2021. "What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami," CAMA Working Papers 2021-99, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Piotr Lewandowski & Marek Antosiewicz & Jan Baran & Iga Magda & Monika Potoczna & Maciej Lis & Joanna Tyrowicz & Agnieszka Kaminska & Jan Hagemejer & Karol Pogorzelski, 2013. "Employment in Poland 2012. Labour Market During the Recovery from the Crisis," Books and Reports published by IBS, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych, number zwp2012 edited by Piotr Lewandowski & Iga Magda, january.
    20. Robert Barro, 2023. "r Minus g," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 1-17, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Interest rates; Fiscal sustainability; Public budget;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:49:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10663-022-09552-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.