IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/empiri/v31y2004i2p137-162.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Hallett
  • Gert Peersman
  • Laura Piscitelli

Abstract

There is a presumption in the literature that price or exchange rate uncertainty, or uncertainty in the monetary conditions underlying them, will have a negative effect on investment. Some argue that this negative effect will be extended by imperfect competition. However, models of “irreversible” investment show that the situation is more complicated than that. In these models, investment expenditures are affected by the scrapping price available on world markets and also by the opportunity cost of waiting rather than investing. The impact of uncertainty is therefore going to depend on the type of industry and hence on the industrial structure of the economy concerned. In addition, it may depend on the persistence of any price “misalignments” away from competitive equilibrium. In this paper, we put these theoretical predictions to the test. We estimate investment equations for 13 different industries using data for nine OECD countries over the period 1970–2000. We find that the impact of price uncertainty is negative or insignificant in all but one case whereas the impact of (nominal) exchange rate uncertainty is negative in only six cases, positive in four cases, and insignificant in three others. In addition, there are conflicting effects from the real exchange rate. The net effect depends on whether the source of the uncertainty is in domestic markets or in foreign markets. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 137-162, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:31:y:2004:i:2:p:137-162
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-004-1164-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10663-004-1164-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10663-004-1164-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 55-67, March.
    2. Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K., 1998. "Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9804, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    4. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
    5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    6. repec:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:119-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Professor E. Philip Davis & Joseph Byrne, 2002. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 198, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Andrew Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 137-162, June.
    9. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    10. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-154, April.
    11. Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, 2000. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Business Sector Investment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0600, Econometric Society.
    12. Pesaran, M. H. & Zhao, Z., 1998. "Bias Reduction in Estimating Long-run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogenous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9802, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    14. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Investigation," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0406, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    15. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    16. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Investigation," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0406, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    2. Martin Ruzima & Micheal Kofi Boachie, 2018. "Exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in BRICS economies," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 65-77, April.
    3. Andrew Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 137-162, June.
    4. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2009. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 813-835, September.
    5. Michael McMahon & Gabriel Sterne & Jamie Thompson, 2005. "The role of ICT in the global investment cycle," Bank of England working papers 257, Bank of England.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anubha Dhasmana, 2021. "Employment growth in the face of exchange rate uncertainty: The role of trade and foreign equity finance," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 79-117, July.
    2. Bao-We-Wal BAMBE, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Working Papers REM 2022/0237, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Li, Guangzhong & Li, Jie & Wu, Yangru, 2019. "Exchange rate uncertainty and firm-level investment: Finding the Hartman–Abel effect," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 441-457.
    4. Martin Ruzima & Micheal Kofi Boachie, 2018. "Exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in BRICS economies," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 65-77, April.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    6. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2009. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 813-835, September.
    7. Michael McMahon & Gabriel Sterne & Jamie Thompson, 2005. "The role of ICT in the global investment cycle," Bank of England working papers 257, Bank of England.
    8. Belke, Ansgar & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Paul, Stephan & Schmidt, Christoph M. (ed.), 2009. "Wirtschaftspolitik im Zeichen europäischer Integration: Festschrift für Wim Kösters anlässlich seines 65. Geburtstages," RWI Schriften, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, volume 83, number 83.
    9. Hanno Dihle, 2015. "Real Options in a Ramsey style Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series 32, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Dec 2015.
    10. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    11. Abel, Andrew B. & Eberly, Janice C., 1999. "The effects of irreversibility and uncertainty on capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 339-377, December.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    13. Binding, Garret & Dibiasi, Andreas, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and firm investment plans evidence from Swiss survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-27.
    14. Bettina Becker & Stephen Hall, 2004. "Foreign direct investment in industrial R&D and exchange rate uncertainty in the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 4, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. Nigel Pain & Desirée Van Welsum, 2003. "Untying The Gordian Knot: The Multiple Links Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 823-846, December.
    16. Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, 2000. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Business Sector Investment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0600, Econometric Society.
    17. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:633-653 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Le, Duc Thuc & Jones, John Bailey, 2005. "Optimal investment with lumpy costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1211-1236, July.
    19. El-Shazly Alaa, 2004. "Investment Under Uncertainty in Egypt: A Real-Options Approach," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 51-60, August.
    20. Li, Yong & James, Barclay & Madhavan, Ravi & Mahoney, Joseph T., 2006. "Real Options: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead," Working Papers 06-0114, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
    21. Marmer, Vadim & Slade, Margaret E., 2018. "Investment and uncertainty with time to build: Evidence from entry into U.S. copper mining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 233-254.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:31:y:2004:i:2:p:137-162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.