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Assessing gross domestic product and inflation probability forecasts derived from Bank of England fan charts

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  • John W. Galbraith
  • Simon van Norden

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • John W. Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2012. "Assessing gross domestic product and inflation probability forecasts derived from Bank of England fan charts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 175(3), pages 713-727, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:175:y:2012:i:3:p:713-727
    DOI: j.1467-985X.2011.01012.x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Díaz, 2018. "Extracting information shocks from the Bank of England inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 316-326, April.
    2. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019. "From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts," Working Papers 1947, Banco de España.
    3. Galbraith, John W. & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Asymmetry in unemployment rate forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1613-1626.
    4. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "Central bank forecasting: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 342-364, April.
    5. Taillardat, Maxime & Fougères, Anne-Laure & Naveau, Philippe & de Fondeville, Raphaël, 2023. "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extremes using continuous ranked probability score distributions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1448-1459.
    6. Chris McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Simon van Norden, 2015. "Estimates of Québec’s Growth Uncertainty," CIRANO Project Reports 2015rp-01, CIRANO.
    8. repec:wrk:wrkemf:38 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:wrk:wrkemf:09 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Too many skew normal distributions? The practitioner’s perspective," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/07, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    11. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Mitchell, James, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty : An Application using the Bank of England’s “Fan Charts” for Historical GDP Growth," EMF Research Papers 24, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    12. Rossi, Barbara & Ganics, Gergely & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Foreca," CEPR Discussion Papers 14267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2018. "Scoring rules for simple forecasting models: The case of Cyprus GDP and its sectors," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(1), pages 59-73, June.
    14. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
    15. Lahiri, Kajal & Peng, Huaming & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Testing the value of probability forecasts for calibrated combining," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 113-129.
    16. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Owyang, 2022. "Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1314-1333, November.
    17. Garratt, Anthony & Henckel, Timo & Vahey, Shaun P., 2023. "Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 736-753.
    18. repec:wrk:wrkemf:35 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Luca Brugnolini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2022. "Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 883-900, October.
    20. Schreiber, Sven & Soldatenkova, Natalia, 2016. "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 166-187.
    21. repec:wrk:wrkemf:07 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2020. "The Murphy Decomposition and the Calibration-Resolution Principle: A New Perspective on Forecast Evaluation," Papers 2005.01835, arXiv.org.
    23. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    24. Fabian Kruger & Hendrik Plett, 2022. "Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts," Papers 2210.13562, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.

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