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Volatility Relationship between Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

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  • Thomas Lee
  • John Zyren

Abstract

This paper utilizes calculated historical volatility and GARCH models to compare the historical price volatility behavior of crude oil, motor gasoline and heating oil in U.S. markets since 1990. We incorporate a shift variable in the GARCH/TARCH models to capture the response of price volatility to a change in OPEC’s pricing behavior. This study has three major conclusions. First, there was an increase in volatility as a result of a structural shift to higher crude oil prices after April 1999. Second, volatility shocks from current news are not important since GARCH effects dominate ARCH effects in the variance equation. Third, persistence of volatility in all commodity markets is quite transitory, with half-lives normally being a few weeks. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Lee & John Zyren, 2007. "Volatility Relationship between Crude Oil and Petroleum Products," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 35(1), pages 97-112, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:35:y:2007:i:1:p:97-112
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-006-9051-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    2. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2016. "Spikes and crashes in the oil market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 615-623.
    3. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Modelling Conditional Correlations for Risk Diversification in Crude Oil Markets," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-640, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2014. "The relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Do structural breaks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 206-217.
    5. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
    6. Ye, Shiyu & Karali, Berna, 2016. "The informational content of inventory announcements: Intraday evidence from crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 349-364.
    7. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Hu, Hsu-Ning & Chiou, Jer-Shiou, 2010. "Jump dynamics with structural breaks for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 343-350, March.
    8. Suvankulov, Farrukh & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Ogucu, Fatma, 2012. "Price regulation and relative price convergence: Evidence from the retail gasoline market in Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 325-334.
    9. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian, 2017. "Investigating the leverage effect in commodity markets with a recursive estimation approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 763-778.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil markets; price volatility; petroleum product; GARCH; asymmetric response; Q40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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