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Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

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  • Richard Cebula

Abstract

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Cebula, 2003. "Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(3), pages 255-265, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:31:y:2003:i:3:p:255-265
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02298819
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    1. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francois Facchini, 2018. "What Are the Determinants of Public Spending? An Overview of the Literature," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(4), pages 419-439, December.
    2. Bob Barnes, 2007. "A Cointegrating approach to budget deficits and long-term interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 127-133.
    3. Basil Dalamagas & Stefanos Tantos, 2016. "Optimal Versus Actual Maturity of Government Debt: The Case of Greece," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 25-52, July-Sept.
    4. Daniel Choi & Mark Holmes, 2014. "Budget deficits and real interest rates: a regime-switching reflection on Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.
    5. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Government Borrowing And The Longterm Interest Rate: Application Of An Extended Loanable Funds Model To The Slovak Republic," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 55(184), pages 58-70, January –.
    6. Basil Dalamagas & Stefanos Tantos, 2017. "Optimal Sovereign Debt for an Overdebted Country," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 95-118, June.
    7. Harvie, Charles & Saleh, Ali Salman, 2008. "Lebanon's economic reconstruction after the war: A bridge too far?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 857-872.

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