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Estimating net lottery revenues for states

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  • Terry Ashley
  • Yi Liu
  • Semoon Chang

Abstract

Based on 1980–95 data, this paper estimates and forecasts net lottery revenues for states with and without lotteries. This study indicates that a multi-state estimation is improved when a time-series and cross-section technique is used. Forecasting results are also improved when unequal time series in the data and less-than-full first years of operating lottery are controlled. For states without lotteries, the time-series and cross-section estimation indicates that only two of 14 states without a lottery would have generated net lottery revenue of more than $100 million. The number increases to five of 14 in the cross-section estimation. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Terry Ashley & Yi Liu & Semoon Chang, 1999. "Estimating net lottery revenues for states," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(2), pages 170-178, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:27:y:1999:i:2:p:170-178
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02300236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gulley, O. David & Scott, Frank A. Jr., 1989. "Lottery Effects on Pari-Mutuel Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 42(1), pages 89-93, March.
    2. John E. Filer & Donald L. Moak & Barry Uze, 1988. "Why Some States Adopt Lotteries and others Don'T," Public Finance Review, , vol. 16(3), pages 259-283, July.
    3. Gulley, O. David & Scott, Frank A. Jr., 1989. "Lottery Effects on Pari-Mutuel Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 42(1), pages 89-93, March.
    4. John F. Scoggins, 1994. "Upping the Ante for Lotto: a Strategy for Enhancing State Revenues," Public Finance Review, , vol. 22(2), pages 258-264, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Di Bella, Enrico & Gandullia, Luca & Leporatti, Lucia, 2015. "The Impact of Gambling on Government Budget: A European Comparison with a Focus on Italy - L’impatto del gioco d’azzardo sul bilancio dello stato: un confronto europeo e analisi del contesto italiano," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(2), pages 187-212.
    2. Kent R. Grote & Victor A. Matheson, 2017. "Should gambling markets be privatized? An examination of state lotteries in the United States," Chapters, in: Plácido Rodríguez & Brad R. Humphreys & Robert Simmons (ed.), The Economics of Sports Betting, chapter 2, pages 21-37, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Frees, Edward W. & Miller, Thomas W., 2004. "Sales forecasting using longitudinal data models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 99-114.

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