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Credit Risk Analysis on Euro Government Bonds-Term Structures of Default Probabilities

Author

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  • Takeaki Kariya
  • Yoshiro Yamamura
  • Yoko Tanokura
  • Zhu Wang

Abstract

In this paper, we make a comprehensive credit risk analysis on government bonds (GBs) of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece over the period 2007.4–2012.3, where interest rate (IR) differential, GB price differential, default probability (DP) and credit default swap (CDS) are considered. First, applying the GB-pricing model in Kariya (Quantitative methods for portfolio analysis: MTV approach. Springer, Berlin, 1993 ) to these GB prices, we derive the term structures of interest rates (TSIRs) and discuss on the Maastricht convergence condition for the IR-differentials among these states relative to the German TSIRs and make some observations on some divergent tendencies. The results are associated with the business cycles and budgetary condition of each state. In the second part, to substantiate this viewpoint, we first make credit risk price spread analysis on price differentials and derive the term structures of default probabilities (TSDPs) of the French, Italian, Spanish and Greek GBs relative to the German GBs, where the corporate bond (CB) model proposed in Kariya (Advances in modern statistical theory and applications: a Festschrift for Professor Morris L. Eaton. Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Beachwood, 2013 ) is used in the derivation. Then it is empirically shown that the TSDPs show a significant divergent movement at the end of 2011, affected by the Euro Crisis. In addition, the TSDPs of these GBs are empirically shown to be almost linear functions of the differences of the TSIRs, which enables us to state the Maastricht condition in terms of DP. Thirdly the effectiveness of our TSDPs is empirically verified by comparing them with the corresponding CDSs against US dollars. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Takeaki Kariya & Yoshiro Yamamura & Yoko Tanokura & Zhu Wang, 2015. "Credit Risk Analysis on Euro Government Bonds-Term Structures of Default Probabilities," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 22(4), pages 397-427, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:22:y:2015:i:4:p:397-427
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-015-9202-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Takeaki Kariya & Jingsui Wang & Zhu Wang & Eiichi Doi & Yoshiro Yamamura, 2012. "Empirically Effective Bond Pricing Model and Analysis on Term Structures of Implied Interest Rates in Financial Crisis," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 19(3), pages 259-292, September.
    3. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
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    5. Friewald, Nils & Jankowitsch, Rainer & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2012. "Illiquidity or credit deterioration: A study of liquidity in the US corporate bond market during financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 18-36.
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    7. Duffie, Darrell, 2011. "Measuring Corporate Default Risk," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279234.
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    Cited by:

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