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Identifying the determinants of mortgage default in Colombia between 1997 and 2004

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  • Juan Carranza
  • Dairo Estrada

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between mortgage default decisions and relevant observable variables in Colombia between 1997 and 2004. We estimate a discrete choice model of default using a panel of individual mortgage characteristics and payment information. We show that home prices and debt balances are the main determinants of mortgage default. We account for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity using Survey data and simulation techniques. Including controls for the distribution of income shows that income was not important but helps clarifying the relevance of mortgage leverage in the determination of the observed default rates. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carranza & Dairo Estrada, 2013. "Identifying the determinants of mortgage default in Colombia between 1997 and 2004," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 501-518, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:9:y:2013:i:3:p:501-518
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-012-0196-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julio Escobar & Carlos Huertas & Dora Alicia Mora & José Vicente Romero, 2006. "Indice De Precios De La Vivienda Usada En Colombia -Ipvu-Método De Ventas Repetidas," Borradores de Economia 2837, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "Estimating Housing Demand With an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 20-33, January.
    3. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Robert McMillan, 2007. "A Unified Framework for Measuring Preferences for Schools and Neighborhoods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 588-638, August.
    4. Dennis Epple & Thomas Romer & Holger Sieg, 2001. "Interjurisdictional Sorting and Majority Rule: An Empirical Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1437-1465, November.
    5. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Salvador Climent-Serrano & Elisabeth Bustos-Contell & Gregorio Labatut-Serer, 2019. "Differential Effect on the Determinants of the Late Payments According to the Economic Cycle," Journal of Business Administration Research, Journal of Business Administration Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 14-28, April.
    2. Richard Chamboko & Jorge Miguel Bravo, 2020. "A Multi-State Approach to Modelling Intermediate Events and Multiple Mortgage Loan Outcomes," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-29, June.
    3. Salvador Climent-Serrano, 2019. "Effects of economic variables on NPLs depending on the economic cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 325-340, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage default; Maximum simulated likelihood; Colombia; C25; C58; D12; G01; G21;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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