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Risk premia in option markets

Author

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  • Dilip B. Madan

    (University of Maryland)

Abstract

Risk premia are related to price probability ratios or for continuous time pure jump processes the ratios of jump arrival rates under the pricing and physical measures. The variance gamma model is employed to synthesize densities with risk premia seen as the ratio of the three parameters. The premia are shown to be mean reverting, predictable, focused on crashes at shorter horizons and rallies at the longer horizon. Predicted premia may be used to adjust physical parameters to develop option prices based on time series data.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilip B. Madan, 2016. "Risk premia in option markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 71-94, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:12:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10436-016-0273-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0273-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Tails, Fears, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2165-2211, December.
    3. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-524, October.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1380 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    7. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
    8. Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "Returns of claims on the upside and the viability of U-shaped pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-154, July.
    9. Peter Carr & Dilip B. Madan, 2014. "Joint modeling of VIX and SPX options at a single and common maturity with risk management applications," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(11), pages 1125-1131, November.
    10. Peter Carr & Hélyette Geman & Dilip B. Madan & Marc Yor, 2007. "Self‐Decomposability And Option Pricing," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 31-57, January.
    11. K. J. Arrow, 1964. "The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 31(2), pages 91-96.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carr, Peter & Madan, Dilip B. & Melamed, Michael & Schoutens, Wim, 2016. "Hedging insurance books," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 364-372.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Variance gamma; Self decomposable law; Vector auto regression; Long horizon returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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