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On the Quality of FFO Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • David H. Downs

    (School of Business, Virginia Commonwealth University, P.O. Box 844000, Richmond VA 23284-4000)

  • Z. Nuray Güner

    (Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey)

Abstract

This paper is the first attempt to provide an objective assessment of the quality of real estate funds from operations (FFO) forecasts. The work, which looks past the more primitive question concerning the appropriate measure for real estate earnings, quantifies and tests the quality of real estate investment trust (REIT) FFO forecasts relative to the net income forecasts of several comparison groups. The results show the high quality of REIT forecasts are remarkably robust and are not driven by the level of analyst attention. Investors in a post-Enron and Sarbanes-Oxley era may find the implications for high quality forecasts of real estate earning to be an appealing investment concept.

Suggested Citation

  • David H. Downs & Z. Nuray Güner, 2006. "On the Quality of FFO Forecasts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 257-274.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:28:n:3:2006:p:257-274
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Downs & Z. Nuray Güner, 2000. "Investment Analysis, Price Formation and Neglected Firms: Does Real Estate Make a Difference?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 549-579.
    2. Kwon, Sung S, 2002. "Financial Analysts' Forecast Accuracy and Dispersion: High-Tech versus Low-Tech Stocks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 65-91, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guojie Ma, 2016. "Corporate Behaviour and Market Integration: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Real Estate Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2016, January-A.
    2. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.
    3. Ryan G. Chacon & Dan W. French & Kuntara Pukthuanthong, 2021. "The Information Content of NAV Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 598-629, November.
    4. Cheng Keat Tang & Masaki Mori, 2017. "Sponsor Ownership in Asian REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 265-287, October.
    5. Elizabeth Devos & Erik Devos & Seow Eng Ong & Andrew C. Spieler, 2019. "Are REIT Investors Overly Optimistic after Equity Offerings?: Evidence from Analyst Forecast Errors," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 148-165, August.
    6. repec:uts:finphd:35 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Elizabeth Devos & Erik Devos & Seow Eng Ong & Andrew Spieler, 2017. "Are REIT Investors Overly Optimistic after Equity Offerings?: Evidence from Analyst Forecast Errors," ERES eres2017_129, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    8. James Doran & David Peterson & S. Price, 2012. "Earnings Conference Call Content and Stock Price: The Case of REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 402-434, August.
    9. Paul Anglin & Robert Edelstein & Yanmin Gao & Desmond Tsang, 2013. "What is the Relationship Between REIT Governance and Earnings Management?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 538-563, October.
    10. Coën, Alain & Desfleurs, Aurélie, 2022. "The relative performance of green REITs: Evidence from financial analysts’ forecasts and abnormal returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    11. Kevin C. H. Chiang & Gregory J. Wachtel & Xiyu Zhou, 2019. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Growth Opportunity: The Case of Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 155(2), pages 463-478, March.
    12. Frank Gyamfi-Yeboah & Alan Ziobrowski & Lisa Lambert, 2012. "Reits’ Price Reaction to Unexpected FFO Announcements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 622-644, October.
    13. James Brau & J. Carpenter & Mauricio Rodriguez & C. Sirmans, 2013. "REIT Going Private Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 24-43, January.
    14. Gyamfi-Yeboah, Frank & Ling, David C. & Naranjo, Andy, 2012. "Information, uncertainty, and behavioral effects: Evidence from abnormal returns around real estate investment trust earnings announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1930-1952.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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