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Innovative methodologies for exploring the future of automated vehicle guidance

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  • R. E. C. M. van der Heijden

    (Nijmegen School of Management, Nijmegen University, The Netherlands)

  • V. A. W. J. Marchau

    (Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands)

Abstract

In various countries, transport policy makers are increasingly interested in the automation of vehicle driving tasks. Current policy developments regarding Automated Vehicle Guidance (AVG) are complicated by several uncertainties about the development of AVG technologies, whether their implementation will contribute to or conflict with transport policy goals, and the basic societal conditions that are required for AVG implementation. In this article, we present an approach to reduce the uncertainty regarding alternative AVG implementations. In particular, we develop a backcasting approach to limit the scope of policy development and research by eliminating parts of the large variety in possible AVG developments. This approach consists of the following steps: (1) the specification of plausible AVG concepts; (2) the analysis of the conditions for the implementation of these concepts, resulting in a set of promising AVG concepts and (3) the analysis whether stakeholders' decisions and actions related to the implementation of plausible concepts will be fulfilled in time. This approach helps to eliminate non-plausible, non-promising and non-accepted AVG concepts and reduce the scope of policy making to the most viable ones. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • R. E. C. M. van der Heijden & V. A. W. J. Marchau, 2003. "Innovative methodologies for exploring the future of automated vehicle guidance," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 257-276.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:2-3:p:257-276
    DOI: 10.1002/for.853
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1994. "Summary and Conclusions, Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 245-256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Peter Nijkamp & Gerard Pepping & David Banister, 1996. "Telematics and Transport Behaviour," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-642-80139-6.
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    Cited by:

    1. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Banister, David, 2017. "Dynamic participation processes for policy packaging in transport backcasting studies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-30.
    2. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Banister, David, 2018. "Evaluating the impacts of transport backcasting scenarios with multi-criteria analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 26-37.
    3. M. Lynne Markus & Kevin Mentzer, 2014. "Foresight for a responsible future with ICT," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 353-368, July.

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