IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jns/jbstat/v235y2015i6p630-641.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does the Forward Discount Represent a Long Memory Process or Short Memory Process with Multiple Changes in the Mean?

Author

Listed:
  • Shahrin Aidil Rizal

    (Department of Finance and Banking, Faculty of Business & Accountancy, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)

Abstract

This study aims to determine whether forward discount represents a long memory or short memory process with multiple changes in the mean. Based on the samples of six currencies from November 3, 1986, to March 6, 1998, using Baek and Pipiras’s (2012, 2014) statistical procedures, our findings suggest that forward discount is a short memory process with multiple changes in the mean rather than long memory. These changes in mean are the result of an intervention by monetary authorities in the forex market. Thus, earlier findings of long memory in forward discount, as reported in the extant literature, are questionable.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahrin Aidil Rizal, 2015. "Does the Forward Discount Represent a Long Memory Process or Short Memory Process with Multiple Changes in the Mean?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(6), pages 630-641, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:235:y:2015:i:6:p:630-641
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2015-0607
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2015-0607
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jbnst-2015-0607?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    4. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    5. Changryong Baek & Vladas Pipiras, 2012. "Statistical tests for a single change in mean against long‐range dependence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 131-151, January.
    6. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyongwook Choi & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Long Memory and Structural Changes in the Forward Discount: An Empirical Investigation," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2003_02, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    2. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Gadea, Maria Dolores & Sabate, Marcela & Serrano, Jose Maria, 2004. "Structural breaks and their trace in the memory: Inflation rate series in the long-run," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 117-134, April.
    4. Michael Plante & Grant Strickler, 2021. "Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks inOil Price Differentials," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(2), pages 1-30, March.
    5. González-Álvarez, María A. & Montañés, Antonio, 2023. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth: Determining the stability of the 3E relationship," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Sakoulis, Georgios & Zivot, Eric & Choi, Kyongwook, 2010. "Structural change in the forward discount: Implications for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 957-966, December.
    7. Carvalho, Carlos & Masini, Ricardo & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2018. "ArCo: An artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 352-380.
    8. Hong, Yongmiao & Linton, Oliver & McCabe, Brendan & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Kolmogorov–Smirnov type testing for structural breaks: A new adjusted-range based self-normalization approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    9. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    10. Lee, Taewook & Baek, Changryong, 2020. "Block wild bootstrap-based CUSUM tests robust to high persistence and misspecification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2014. "Time variation in the standard forward premium regression: Some new models and tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 52-63.
    12. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    13. Benati, Luca, 2014. "Do TFP and the relative price of investment share a common I(1) component?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 239-261.
    14. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo, 2010. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 262-273, January.
    15. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
    16. Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2007. "Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1196-1218, December.
    17. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2012. "Unilateral divorce versus child custody and child support in the U.S," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 613-643.
    18. Choi, Kyongwook & Zivot, Eric, 2007. "Long memory and structural changes in the forward discount: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 342-363, April.
    19. Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
    20. Kim, Moosup & Lee, Taewook & Noh, Jungsik & Baek, Changryong, 2014. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for multiple volatility shifts," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 50-60.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:235:y:2015:i:6:p:630-641. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.