Eine verteilungspolitische Beurteilung aktueller Reformkonzepte zur deutschen Einkommensbesteuerung / A Distributional Analysis of Recent Reform Proposals on the German Income Tax Rate

The present paper investigates potential fiscal and distributional effects which emerge due to four reform scenarios on the German income tax rate. The analysis is based on a static simulation model for the German tax system using income tax micro-data. The data shows that changing the present progressive tax system to a flat-tax, which was proposed by the FDP in 2010, could reduce the tax revenue by 15 billion Euro. Such a tax regime would increase the unequal distribution and polarisation of net incomes. The IW Köln suggested an alternative tax rate in 2008. This regime would increase unequal distribution and polarisation of disposable incomes to a greater extent than the FDP-tax rate. An implementation of this income tax scale would go along with losses in tax revenue of 18.8 billion Euro. Likewise, the implementation of a 2009 SPD tax rate proposal would reduce tax revenue by 14.8 billion Euro. Although this regime would reduce unequal distribution, the effect on the polarization of disposable incomes is not definitely predictable. In contrast to all the other scenarios, the realisation of the recent SPD tax rate proposal from 2011 could enlarge tax revenue by 4.7 billion Euro. This tax regime would reduce unequal distribution and polarisation of disposable incomes even more than the present tax system.