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Do Mutual Fund Managers Time Market Sentiment?

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  • Jun-Hao Li
  • Chun-Fan You
  • Chin-Sheng Huang

Abstract

This paper examines whether fund managers can adjust the exposure of portfolio to time market sentiment, thus expanding the new dimension of the study of mutual fund managers¡¯ timing ability. Using the data of Chinese open-end equity funds from January 2010 to December 2019, based on the CICSI sentiment index developed by Yi and Mao (2009), we find strong evidence that Chinese mutual fund managers have sentiment ability during the sample period. In addition, the funds with positive sentiment timing ability outperforms those without such by 2.20% per year, and the longer the fund survives, the more likely for it to have sentiment timing ability. Our findings remain robust even after controlling the impact of bull and bear market on China¡¯s A-share market in 2015, market timing, volatility timing and liquidity timing, and after using three new sentiment indicators to verify the finding, three indicators being the net buying amount of northward capital, the net buying amount of financing, and the net ratio of limit up.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun-Hao Li & Chun-Fan You & Chin-Sheng Huang, 2020. "Do Mutual Fund Managers Time Market Sentiment?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(5), pages 527-537, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:11:y:2020:i:5:p:527-537
    DOI: 10.5430/ijfr.v11n5p527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yang-Chao Wang & Jui-Jung Tsai & Qiaoqiao Li, 2017. "Policy Impact on the Chinese Stock Market: From the 1994 Bailout Policies to the 2015 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Liao, Li & Zhang, Xueyong & Zhang, Yeqing, 2017. "Mutual fund managers' timing abilities," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 80-96.
    3. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    4. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Zhang, Ruiyi, 2018. "Sentiment hedging: How hedge funds adjust their exposure to market sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 147-160.
    5. Yi, Li & He, Lei, 2016. "False discoveries in style timing of Chinese mutual funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 194-208.
    6. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
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    2. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Bai, Yidan, 2021. "Timing market confidence in the Chinese domestic security market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 298-311.

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