IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jfr/afr111/v1y2012i2p101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for Rational Bubbles in the Commodity Market

Author

Listed:
  • Tadahiro Nakajima
  • Shigeyuki Hamori

Abstract

In order to hedge price-fluctuation risks, to derive fair prices, and to operate fundsas a new asset class, both expectations and concerns about commodity markets have been increasing.This paper proposes a sufficient condition for the absence of rational bubbles in the commodity market- that the first differences of real prices are stationary. This condition is proposed on the assumption that products of the convenience yield and the real prices are stationary. By applying this approach to the US crude oil and natural gas marketsfrom 3 January 2007, to 30 December 2011, the absence of rational bubbles in both markets can be verified.One should interpretthese large price fluctuations as caused by much larger income elasticity than price elasticity.These prices reflect thefundamental values of these commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Tadahiro Nakajima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2012. "Testing for Rational Bubbles in the Commodity Market," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 1(2), pages 101-101, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:afr111:v:1:y:2012:i:2:p:101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sciedupress.com/journal/index.php/afr/article/download/1703/920
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.sciedupress.com/journal/index.php/afr/article/view/1703
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuichi Fukuta, 2002. "A test for rational bubbles in stock prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 587-600.
    2. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    3. Mark Bertus & Bryan Stanhouse, 2001. "Rational speculative bubbles in the gold futures market: An application of dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-108, January.
    4. Fukuta, Yuichi, 1996. "Rational bubbles and non-risk neutral investors in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 459-473, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Hao, Lin-Na, 2019. "Are there periodically collapsing bubble behaviours in the global coffee market?," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 59(1), July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.
    2. Wei Long & Dingding Li & Qi Li, 2016. "Testing explosive behavior in the gold market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1151-1164, November.
    3. Vinod Cheriyan & Anton J. Kleywegt, 2016. "A dynamical systems model of price bubbles and cycles," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 309-336, February.
    4. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    5. Qing He & Zongxin Qian & Zhe Fei & Terence Tai-Leung Chong, 2019. "Do speculative bubbles migrate in the Chinese stock market?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 735-754, February.
    6. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick, 2016. "The shine of precious metals around the global financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 717-738.
    7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers 09-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    8. Park, Donghyun & Xiao, Qin, 2009. "Housing Prices and the Role of Speculation: The Case of Seoul," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 146, Asian Development Bank.
    9. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2015. "House prices: bubbles, exuberance or something else? Evidence from euro area countries," Working Papers w201517, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    11. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Gabriele Mingoli, 2023. "Observation-Driven filters for Time- Series with Stochastic Trends and Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-065/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Mar 2024.
    12. Park, Joon Y. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2012. "Random walk or chaos: A formal test on the Lyapunov exponent," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 61-74.
    13. James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February.
    14. Sudatta Bharati Mohapatra & Nirmal Chandra Kar, 2022. "Revisiting the Long-Run Dynamic Linkage between Dividends and Share Price with Advanced Panel Econometrics Techniques," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, October.
    15. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Shu-Hen, 2019. "Exuberance and spillovers in housing markets: Evidence from first- and second-tier cities in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 75-86.
    16. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
    17. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Santi, Caterina, 2021. "Speculative bubbles in present-value models: A Bayesian Markov-switching state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Randolph & Xiao Qin & Tan Gee Kwang, 2004. "Unit Root Tests with Markov-Switching," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 145, Econometric Society.
    19. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux & Shuping Shi, 2017. "Did bubbles migrate from the stock to the housing market in China between 2005 and 2010?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 276-292, August.
    20. Pavlidis, Efthymios & Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2019. "Detecting periods of exuberance: A look at the role of aggregation with an application to house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 87-102.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jfr:afr111:v:1:y:2012:i:2:p:101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sciedu Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.