IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jes/eurint/y2018v5p302-322.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis Of Sentiment Indicator For The Euro Area (19 Countries) Under The Influence Of Four Management Indicators Using Graphical Representation

Author

Listed:
  • Margareta ILIE

    (Ovidius University, Constanta, Romania)

Abstract

The present paper reveals the second part of early research results obtained from the simulation of the annual sentiment indicator evolution under the influence of the production in industry, the intramural research and development expenditure, the turnover and volume of sales and the employment. The research uses for the process’ simulation the three dimensional representation of the above indicators. The main goal of the research is to be able to determine the four indicators hierarchically listed based on the influence of each indicator on the sentiment indicator evolution. The secondary objective is to compare if the previous results of the research, acquired through the use of artificial neural network simulation, determined the same hierarchy and influence of the four. The data used represent the values for the Euro area (19 countries) recorded between 2006 and 2016, provided by the Eurostat – from the European Commission statistical data website. The author considered that the initial 19 countries represent the most influential ones over the economy and, thus, over the economic sentiment evolution. The method uses the real data and MathCad software for the calculus of polynomial functions that governs the graphic representation of economic sentiment trend under the positive evolution of the each of the four influencer indicators. The polynomial function was chosen by the author because of the incipient phase of research and the trends evolutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Margareta ILIE, 2018. "Analysis Of Sentiment Indicator For The Euro Area (19 Countries) Under The Influence Of Four Management Indicators Using Graphical Representation," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 5, pages 302-322.
  • Handle: RePEc:jes:eurint:y:2018:v:5:p:302-322
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cse.uaic.ro/eurint/proceedings/index_htm_files/EURINT2018_ILI.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Lof, Marten, 2005. "Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 377-389.
    2. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
    3. Radka Martináková & Svatopluk Kapounek, 2013. "Economic sentiment indicator and its information capability in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(7), pages 2491-2498.
    4. Sarah Gelper & Christophe Croux, 2010. "On the Construction of the European Economic Sentiment Indicator," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 47-62, February.
    5. George A. Akerlof & Robert J. Shiller, 2010. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9163.
    6. Bas Aarle & Marcus Kappler, 2012. "Economic sentiment shocks and fluctuations in economic activity in the euro area and the USA," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 47(1), pages 44-51, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nabavi Larimi , Seyed Mohsen & Ehsani , Mohammad Ali & Tavakolian , Hossein, 2018. "Effect of Sentiments on Macroeconomic Variables in Iran: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(1), pages 1-30, January.
    2. Nataša Erjavec & Petar Soriæ & Mirjana Èižmešija, 2016. "Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia: Is economic sentiment the missing link?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 555-579.
    3. Mariana Hatmanu & Cristina Cautisanu & Mihaela Ifrim, 2020. "The Impact of Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and European Business Climate on Economic Growth in Romania: An ARDL Approach with Structural Breaks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Andrzej Cieslik & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2021. "Economic sentiment indicators and foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence from European Union countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 56-75.
    5. Petar Sorić & Blanka Škrabić Perić & Marina Matošec, 2022. "Breaking new grounds: a fresh insight into the leading properties of business and consumer survey indicators," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4511-4535, December.
    6. Nicolas Reigl, 2023. "Noise shocks and business cycle fluctuations in three major European Economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 603-657, February.
    7. Gabe de Bondt, 2017. "Confidence and monetary policy transmission," EcoMod2017 10197, EcoMod.
    8. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2017. "Modeling consumer confidence and its role for expectation formation: A horse race," Economics Working Papers 2017-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    9. Di Bella, Gabriel & Grigoli, Francesco, 2019. "Optimism, pessimism, and short-term fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
    10. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    12. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    14. Fang Zhang, 2017. "Confidence and the transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty in U.S. recessions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(29), pages 2893-2909, June.
    15. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Mirjana Čižmešija, 2015. "European economic sentiment indicator: An empirical reappraisal," EFZG Working Papers Series 1505, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    16. Jess Benhabib & Mark M Spiegel, 2019. "Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from US States," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 715-733.
    17. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    18. Rakovská, Zuzana, 2021. "Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 473-495.
    19. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    20. Jana Juriová, 2015. "The role of foreign sentiment in small open economy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 57-68, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jes:eurint:y:2018:v:5:p:302-322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alupului Ciprian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csjesro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.