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Export-led growth hypothesis: a multivariate cointegration and causality evidence for Jordan

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  • Jamal Husein

    (Angelo State University,USA)

Abstract

Empirical evidence supporting the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has been mixed and inconclusive. Many previous studies may have been misspecified since they tested the ELG hypothesis using bivariate models. Other studies used cointegration and error correction models in a multivariate framework, but failed to tackle the important issues of unit root testing and optimal lag length when testing for cointegration. Following Dhawn and Biswal (1999), this study examines the ELG hypothesis for Jordan in a multivariate framework by including terms of trade as a third variable and by using available annual data (1969-2005). We utilize Johansen and Saikkonen and Lütkepohl cointegration procedures and error correction modeling to test long-run and short-run relations between GDP, exports, and terms of trade. The study finds that real GDP, real exports, and terms of trade are cointegrated. The evidence suggests long-run bidirectional causality between real exports and real GDP. The results of this study suggest that promoting exports via export promotion policies will contribute to economic growth in Jordan.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamal Husein, 2009. "Export-led growth hypothesis: a multivariate cointegration and causality evidence for Jordan," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 42(2), pages 253-266, January-M.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.42:year:2009:issue2:pp:253-266
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jamal HUSEIN, 2008. "Traditional Export Demand Relation: A Cointegration and Parameter Constancy Analysis," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
    2. Adel Shakeeb Mohsen, 2015. "Effects of Oil and Non-Oil Exports on the Economic Growth of Syria," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 1(2), pages 69-78, June.
    3. Salah Abosedra & Chor Foon Tang, 2019. "Are exports a reliable source of economic growth in MENA countries? New evidence from the rolling Granger causality method," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 831-841, March.
    4. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Jaidi, Zied, 2014. "Some new evidence on the determinants of money demand in developing countries – A case study of Tunisia," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 30-45.
    5. Bolaji Adesola Adesoye, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Export Demand in Nigeria," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(36), pages 122-130, May.
    6. Mohamad Ahmad Abou Hamia, 2024. "The integration of developing countries into world technology markets: cause or effect of total factor productivity?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 879-902, February.
    7. HAZMAN, Samsudin & OMAR, Khatijah & ABD HALIMB, Abi sofian & SYAZWAN SHAMSUDIN, Muhammad Saiful, 2021. "Export Led Growth Via Intra-Regional Trading An Econometric Analysis Of Asean, Eu, Nafta, Mercosur And Comesa," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 21(2), pages 5-28.
    8. Husein, J, 2010. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis In The Mena Region: A Multivariate Cointegration, Causality And Stability Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Exports; Cointegration; Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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