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Bootstrapping the Process of Model Selection: An Econometric Example

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  • Veall, Michael R

Abstract

If a researcher has mined the data (i.e. selected an empirical model based on a series of trial estimates), inferences based on the final set of results are in general incorrect. This note treats the entire data mining process as an estimator and shows how a bootstrapping technique may improve the quality of inference. The method is applied to an empirical example on the deterrent effects of capital punishment. Copyright 1992 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Veall, Michael R, 1992. "Bootstrapping the Process of Model Selection: An Econometric Example," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 93-99, Jan.-Marc.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:7:y:1992:i:1:p:93-99
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    1. Jeong, Kyeong-Soo & Garcia, Philip & Bullock, David S., 2003. "A statistical method of multi-market welfare analysis applied to Japanese beef policy liberalization," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 237-256, April.
    2. Sengupta, Sanchita & Kurkalova, Lyubov A. & Kling, Catherine L., 2006. "Avoiding biases from data-dependent specification search: an application to a tillage choice model," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21399, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Sengupta, Sanchita, 2010. "Three Essays in Environmental and Agricultural Issues," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002848, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Jose Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal & Miguel Lafuente & Jose Alberto Molina & Jorge Velilla, 2019. "Resampling and bootstrap algorithms to assess the relevance of variables: applications to cross section entrepreneurship data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 233-267, January.
    5. Tanya Suchoy & Amit Friedman, 2002. "The NAIRU in Israel: an Unobserved Components Approach," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2002.08, Bank of Israel.
    6. Francesco Pauli & Laura Rizzi, 2008. "Summer temperature effects on deaths and hospital admissions among the elderly population in two Italian cities," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 263-276.
    7. Robert J. Johnston & Kevin J. Boyle & Wiktor (Vic) Adamowicz & Jeff Bennett & Roy Brouwer & Trudy Ann Cameron & W. Michael Hanemann & Nick Hanley & Mandy Ryan & Riccardo Scarpa & Roger Tourangeau & Ch, 2017. "Contemporary Guidance for Stated Preference Studies," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 319-405.
    8. Aristeidis Samitas & Dimitris Kenourgios & Peter Zounis, 2008. "Athens' Olympic Games 2004 impact on sponsors' stock returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(19), pages 1569-1580.
    9. McAleer, Michael & Veall, Michael R., 1995. "Data mining and the con in econometrics: the U.S. demand for money revisited," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 329-333.
    10. Amit Friedman & Tanya Suchoy, 2004. "The NAIRU in Israel: An Unobserved Components Approach," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 2(2), pages 125-154.
    11. Yang, Haisheng & He, Jie & Chen, Shaoling, 2015. "The fragility of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Revisiting the hypothesis with Chinese data via an “Extreme Bound Analysis”," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 41-58.
    12. Yang, Bijou & Lester, David, 2008. "The deterrent effect of executions: A meta-analysis thirty years after Ehrlich," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 453-460, September.

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