IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jae/japmet/v22y2007i5p971-993.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Semi-nonparametric competing risks analysis of recidivism

Author

Listed:
  • Herman J. Bierens

    (Department of Economics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA)

  • Jose R. Carvalho

    (CAEN, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil)

Abstract

In this paper we specify a semi-nonparametric competing risks (SNP-CR) model of recidivism, for misdemeanors and felonies. The model is a bivariate mixed proportional hazard model with Weibull baseline hazards and common unobserved heterogeneity. The distribution of the latter is modeled semi-nonparametrically, using orthonormal Legendre polynomials on the unit interval, and integrated out to make the two durations dependent, conditional on the covariates. The SNP-CR model involved corresponds to a Logit model for felony arrest; hence the validity of the SNP-CR model can be tested by testing the validity of the implied Logit model. The latter will be done by using the integrated conditional moment (ICM) test. In the first instance we have estimated and tested two versions of the SNP-CR model, without and with fixed state effects. However, the ICM test rejects these models. Therefore, we have estimated and tested the model for each state separately. These state models are not rejected by the ICM test. Indeed, the estimation results vary substantially per state. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Herman J. Bierens & Jose R. Carvalho, 2007. "Semi-nonparametric competing risks analysis of recidivism," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 971-993.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:5:p:971-993
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.960
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.960
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2007-v22.5/
    File Function: Supporting data files and programs
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jae.960?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bierens, Herman J., 2008. "Semi-Nonparametric Interval-Censored Mixed Proportional Hazard Models: Identification And Consistency Results," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 749-794, June.
    2. Herman J. Bierens & Werner Ploberger, 1997. "Asymptotic Theory of Integrated Conditional Moment Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1129-1152, September.
    3. Stephen Stollmack & Carl M. Harris, 1974. "Failure-Rate Analysis Applied to Recidivism Data," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 22(6), pages 1192-1205, December.
    4. Boning, Wm. Brent & Sowell, Fallaw, 1999. "Optimality For The Integrated Conditional Moment Test," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 710-718, October.
    5. Bierens, Herman J., 1982. "Consistent model specification tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 105-134, October.
    6. Susumu Imai & Kala Krishna, 2004. "Employment, Deterrence, And Crime In A Dynamic Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(3), pages 845-872, August.
    7. Mark Y. An & Bent Jesper Christensen & Nabanita Datta Gupta, 2004. "Multivariate mixed proportional hazard modelling of the joint retirement of married couples," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 687-704.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carvalho, José R. & Bierens, Herman J., 2007. "Conditional Treatment and Its Effect on Recidivism," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 27(1), May.
    2. Rolando de la Cruz & Oslando Padilla & Mauricio A. Valle & Gonzalo A. Ruz, 2021. "Modeling Recidivism through Bayesian Regression Models and Deep Neural Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Bidisha Chakrabarty & Zhaohui Han & Konstantin Tyurin & Xiaoyong Zheng, 2006. "A Competing Risk Analysis of Executions and Cancellations in a Limit Order Market," CAEPR Working Papers 2006-015, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    4. Chen, Xiaohong, 2007. "Large Sample Sieve Estimation of Semi-Nonparametric Models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 76, Elsevier.
    5. Ozkan, Turgut, 2016. "Reoffending among serious juvenile offenders: A developmental perspective," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 18-31.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bierens, Herman J. & Song, Hosin, 2012. "Semi-nonparametric estimation of independently and identically repeated first-price auctions via an integrated simulated moments method," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 108-119.
    2. Lu, Xun & White, Halbert, 2014. "Testing for separability in structural equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 14-26.
    3. Lu, Xun & White, Habert, 2015. "Testing For Treatment Dependence Of Effects Of A Continuous Treatment," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 1016-1053, October.
    4. Antoine, Bertille & Lavergne, Pascal, 2023. "Identification-robust nonparametric inference in a linear IV model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 1-24.
    5. Wang, Xuexin, 2015. "A Note on Consistent Conditional Moment Tests," MPRA Paper 69005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Jacho-Chávez, David T., 2010. "Approximating the critical values of Cramér-von Mises tests in general parametric conditional specifications," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 625-636, March.
    7. Krikamol Muandet & Wittawat Jitkrittum & Jonas Kubler, 2020. "Kernel Conditional Moment Test via Maximum Moment Restriction," Papers 2002.09225, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    8. Hsu, Yu-Chin & Shen, Shu, 2019. "Testing treatment effect heterogeneity in regression discontinuity designs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 468-486.
    9. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
    10. Wei Huang & Oliver Linton & Zheng Zhang, 2021. "A Unified Framework for Specification Tests of Continuous Treatment Effect Models," Papers 2102.08063, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    11. Masamune Iwasawa, 2015. "A Joint Specification Test for Response Probabilities in Unordered Multinomial Choice Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-31, September.
    12. repec:cwl:cwldpp:1761rr is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Li, Qi & Hsiao, Cheng & Zinn, Joel, 2003. "Consistent specification tests for semiparametric/nonparametric models based on series estimation methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 295-325, February.
    14. Heckman, James J. & Schmierer, Daniel & Urzua, Sergio, 2010. "Testing the correlated random coefficient model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 177-203, October.
    15. Elia Lapenta, 2022. "A Bootstrap Specification Test for Semiparametric Models with Generated Regressors," Papers 2212.11112, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    16. Junsheng Ha & Pei-Pei Tan & Kim-Leng Goh, 2018. "Linear and nonlinear causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China: New evidence based on wavelet analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Pascal Lavergne & Valentin Patilea, 2011. "One for All and All for One: Regression Checks With Many Regressors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 41-52, January.
    18. Norman Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2006. "Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output," Departmental Working Papers 200619, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    19. Cho, Jin Seo & White, Halbert, 2011. "Generalized runs tests for the IID hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 326-344, June.
    20. Herman J. Bierens & Li Wang, 2017. "Weighted simulated integrated conditional moment tests for parametric conditional distributions of stationary time series processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 103-135, March.
    21. Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, 2021. "Nonparametric Tests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity With Duration Outcomes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 816-832, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:5:p:971-993. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.