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The Interest Rate Parity in Fragile Five Countries: Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Breaks

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  • Mehmet Altuntas

    (Department of Logistics, Nisantasi University, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

This study analyzes the validity of the uncovered interest rate parity for Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey, which are grouped as The Fragile Five countries within the literature. The econometric analysis section of the study benefits from unit root tests, a common method that researchers have started to utilize recently. For this reason, we used Dickey and Fuller (1979), Augmented Dickey and Fuller (1981), Philips and Perron (1988), Kwiatkowski et al. (1992), Perron (1989) unit root test with one break, Zivot and Andrews (1992) unit root test with one break, and Enders and Lee (2012) Fourier-ADF unit root tests. In line with the results of the analysis, we obtained strong evidence regarding the validity of the uncovered interest rate parity for Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey. Results for India vary according to the structure of the break and where the structural break is taken into consideration. This shows that structural breaks and the economic circumstances of the period that the data set is from should be considered. Although results for South Africa show that interest rate parity is generally valid, results for the Fourier-ADF test, which allows for smooth breaks, offered evidence that the interest rate parity was not valid in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Altuntas, 2021. "The Interest Rate Parity in Fragile Five Countries: Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Breaks," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 327-349, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:iujepr:v:8:y:2021:i:2:p:327-349
    DOI: 10.26650/JEPR.937488
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate parity; The Fragile Five Countries; Unit root tests; Financial integration; Emerging market countries JEL Classification : B26 ; C22 ; F31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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