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Methodological aspects and empirical evidence in the use of administrative sources to estimate price dynamics in external trade

Author

Listed:
  • Paola Anitori

    (Italian National Institute of Statistics)

  • Carlo De Gregorio

    (Italian National Institute of Statistics)

Abstract

This paper explores the possibility to widen the current offer of unit value and price indicators in external trade throughout a more intensive and efficient use of the available administrative sources. In particular, it firstly overviews the opportunities offered by a fuller exploitation of custom records linkage to other sources, such as business registers. Secondly, it presents a suitable conceptual and methodological framework for the estimates of price indicators based on custom records regarding, on the one hand, the definition of the reference population and the target parameter and, on the other hand, a statistically founded method to supersede the lack of details on the characteristics of the products. A generalised method of univariate density estimation and clustering is proposed to estimate homogeneous market segments on the basis of the elementary unit value distribution. A basic version of such method is applied to a subset of Italian custom records referred to years 2005-2007 and it is used to simulate estimates of export and import price dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Paola Anitori & Carlo De Gregorio, 2011. "Methodological aspects and empirical evidence in the use of administrative sources to estimate price dynamics in external trade," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 13(1), pages 33-61, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:isa:journl:v:13:y:2011:i:1:p:33-61
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Donald Siegel, 1991. "Errors in Output Deflators Revisited: Unit Values and the PPI," NBER Working Papers 3935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Balk,Bert M., 2012. "Price and Quantity Index Numbers," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107404960, September.
    3. Mick Silver, 2007. "Do Unit Value Export, Import, and Terms of Trade Indices Represent or Misrepresent Price Indices?," IMF Working Papers 2007/121, International Monetary Fund.
    4. von der Lippe, Peter, 2007. "Price indices and unit value indices in German foreign trade statistics," MPRA Paper 5525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Paola Anitori & M. Serena Causo & Giuseppe de Santis, 2010. "Alcune considerazioni sulla qualità degli indici dei valori medi unitari del commercio estero," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 12(2-3), pages 5-29, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit values; Import and export price indices; Non parametric density estimates; Univariate clustering; Market segments; Administrative sources.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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