Contagious Real Estate Cycle: Case of the US Subprime Related Crisis

The recent U.S. financial crisis has been found to be unique compared with previous crises: it started when problems first appeared in the housing market and subprime lending, and then spread to the whole financial system and national economy. Through the securitization of structured private label mortgage products, its impact even reached the international capital markets. To explore the cause of the long and far-reaching effect of the current subprime-induced crisis, we review a series of events and government policies prior, during, and after the subprime and housing crisis. Using qualitative and quantitative models, we show that the low interest rate and passive market supervisory policies made by the U.S. government are among the main drivers of the housing boom. During the housing bust, despite a more aggressive regulatory environment, several conflicting policies that were implemented may have prolonged and deepened the recession. Based on these hypotheses, we argue that contagious real estate cycles can be prevented and/or controlled by more proactive counter-cyclical government intervention.