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Addressing Passenger Risk Uncertainty for Aviation Security Screening

Author

Listed:
  • Adrian J. Lee

    (Central Illinois Technology and Education Research Institute, Springfield, Illinois 62704)

  • Sheldon H. Jacobson

    (Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Urbana--Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801)

Abstract

Within the aviation security system, the preeminent objective of passenger and baggage screening is to prevent prohibited items from entering the airport terminal and getting put onboard a commercial aircraft. Because of limited budget and personnel resources, as well as constraints on the screening device capacities, only a fraction of the passengers may be screened at the highest security levels. Sequential passenger assignment policies have been formulated through dynamic programming and nonlinear control. However, both of these approaches rely on a known distribution of passenger risk. This paper presents estimation algorithms that address various levels of uncertainty in the passenger risk distribution, which can be applied to existing passenger assignment policies. Simulation results are reported to illustrate the sensitivity to variations in the unknown distribution parameter and to demonstrate that the prudent practice of overestimating the overall population risk level produces a larger number of improperly screened passengers and a lower level of security in comparison to underestimating passenger risk. The key contribution of this work is the finding that integrating online estimation of passenger risk into security screening assignment decisions increases the overall expected security and decreases the sensitivity to variations in the overall population risk level.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian J. Lee & Sheldon H. Jacobson, 2012. "Addressing Passenger Risk Uncertainty for Aviation Security Screening," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 189-203, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:46:y:2012:i:2:p:189-203
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.1110.0384
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D.D. Yao & S. Zheng, 1999. "Sequential quality control in batch manufacturing," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 87(0), pages 3-30, April.
    2. Nie, Xiaofeng & Batta, Rajan & Drury, Colin G. & Lin, Li, 2009. "Passenger grouping with risk levels in an airport security system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 574-584, April.
    3. Adrian Lee & Sheldon Jacobson, 2011. "Sequential stochastic assignment under uncertainty: estimation and convergence," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 21-46, February.
    4. Alexander G. Nikolaev & Sheldon H. Jacobson & Laura A. McLay, 2007. "A Sequential Stochastic Security System Design Problem for Aviation Security," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 182-194, May.
    5. Laura A. McLay & Adrian J. Lee & Sheldon H. Jacobson, 2010. "Risk-Based Policies for Airport Security Checkpoint Screening," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(3), pages 333-349, August.
    6. Lazar Babu, Vellara L. & Batta, Rajan & Lin, Li, 2006. "Passenger grouping under constant threat probability in an airport security system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 633-644, January.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Yan, Xihong & Ren, Xiaorong & Nie, Xiaofeng, 2022. "A budget allocation model for domestic airport network protection," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).

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