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The Use of Disaggregate Choice Models in Semi-Markov Process Models of Trip Chaining Behavior

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  • Steven R. Lerman

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts)

Abstract

Travel demand models currently used in practice generally ignore the phenomenon of trip chaining. However, there is growing evidence that the possibility of forming more efficient trip tours may be a principal mechanism by which travelers adapt their behavior when confronted with gasoline shortages or severe price increases. This paper tries to synthesize two different analysis methodologies, disaggregate choice models and semi-Markov processes, to develop an operational, policy sensitive model of non-work trip chaining. The theory of each of these methods is briefly described. A model of trip chaining is then formulated. An example of the model, implemented for Rochester, New York, is then presented, and conclusions regarding potentially fruitful extensions are drawn.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven R. Lerman, 1979. "The Use of Disaggregate Choice Models in Semi-Markov Process Models of Trip Chaining Behavior," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(4), pages 273-291, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:13:y:1979:i:4:p:273-291
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.13.4.273
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    Cited by:

    1. Karthika, P.S. & Kedar, Vedankur & Verma, Ashish, 2022. "A walk accessibility-based approach to assess crowd management in mass religious gatherings," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    2. L Mazurkiewicz, 1985. "A Statistical Model of a Multitrip Spatial-Interaction Pattern," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 17(11), pages 1533-1539, November.
    3. Hauser, John R. & Wisniewski, Kenneth J., 1981. "Application, predictive test, and strategy implications for a dynamic model of consumer response to marketing," Working papers 1244-81., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    4. Lam, William H.K. & Li, Zhi-Chun & Huang, Hai-Jun & Wong, S.C., 2006. "Modeling time-dependent travel choice problems in road networks with multiple user classes and multiple parking facilities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 368-395, June.
    5. Zhang, Xiaoning & Yang, Hai & Huang, Hai-Jun & Zhang, H. Michael, 2005. "Integrated scheduling of daily work activities and morning-evening commutes with bottleneck congestion," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 41-60, January.
    6. Michael Duncan, 2016. "How much can trip chaining reduce VMT? A simplified method," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 643-659, July.
    7. Lierop, W.F.J. van & Nijkamp, P., 1986. "Disaggregate residential choice models : review and case study," Serie Research Memoranda 0044, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    8. S L Handy & D A Niemeier, 1997. "Measuring Accessibility: An Exploration of Issues and Alternatives," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 29(7), pages 1175-1194, July.

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