IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v64y2016i5p1073-1088.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

When Micro Prudence Increases Macro Risk: The Destabilizing Effects of Financial Innovation, Leverage, and Diversification

Author

Listed:
  • Fulvio Corsi

    (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Università Ca’ Foscari, Venice, Italy and City University of London, United Kingdom)

  • Stefano Marmi

    (Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, Italy)

  • Fabrizio Lillo

    (Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, Italy)

Abstract

By exploiting basic common practice accounting and risk-management rules, we propose a simple analytical dynamical model to investigate the effects of microprudential changes on macroprudential outcomes. Specifically, we study the consequence of the introduction of a financial innovation that allows reducing the cost of portfolio diversification in a financial system populated by financial institutions having capital requirements in the form of Value at Risk (VaR) constraint and following standard mark-to-market and risk-management rules. We provide a full analytical quantification of the multivariate feedback effects between investment prices and bank behavior induced by portfolio rebalancing in presence of asset illiquidity and show how changes in the constraints of the bank portfolio optimization endogenously drive the dynamics of the balance sheet aggregate of financial institutions and, thereby, the availability of bank liquidity to the economic system and systemic risk. The model shows that when financial innovation reduces the cost of diversification below a given threshold, the strength (because of higher leverage) and coordination (because of similarity of bank portfolios) of feedback effects increase, triggering a transition from a stationary dynamics of price returns to a nonstationary one characterized by steep growths (bubbles) and plunges (bursts) of market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Fulvio Corsi & Stefano Marmi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2016. "When Micro Prudence Increases Macro Risk: The Destabilizing Effects of Financial Innovation, Leverage, and Diversification," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1073-1088, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:64:y:2016:i:5:p:1073-1088
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2015.1464
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1464
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.2015.1464?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2011. "Markowitz meets Talmud: A combination of sophisticated and naive diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 204-215, January.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    3. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. "Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-1366, September.
    4. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
    6. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    7. Stefan Thurner & J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Leverage causes fat tails and clustered volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 695-707, February.
    8. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    10. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 373-403.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    12. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2014. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 6, pages 165-204, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    16. Rama Cont & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2012. "Fire Sales Forensics: Measuring Endogenous Risk," Working Papers hal-00697224, HAL.
    17. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    19. George M. Constantinides, 2005. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Transaction Costs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 7, pages 207-227, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Paolo Tasca & Stefano Battiston, "undated". "Diversification and Financial Stability," Working Papers CCSS-11-001, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    21. Pflug, Georg Ch. & Pichler, Alois & Wozabal, David, 2012. "The 1/N investment strategy is optimal under high model ambiguity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 410-417.
    22. Danielsson, Jon & Shin, Hyun Song & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2004. "The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1069-1087, May.
    23. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2011. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-09," Working Papers 1396, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    24. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    25. Andrew G. Haldane & Robert M. May, 2011. "Systemic risk in banking ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 469(7330), pages 351-355, January.
    26. Fabio Caccioli & Matteo Marsili & Pierpaolo Vivo, 2009. "Eroding market stability by proliferation of financial instruments," Papers 0910.0064, arXiv.org.
    27. Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide, 2015. "The impact of systemic and illiquidity risk on financing with risky collateral," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 180-202.
    28. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2015.
    29. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    30. Richard H. Thaler & Shlomo Benartzi, 2001. "Naive Diversification Strategies in Defined Contribution Saving Plans," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 79-98, March.
    31. Domenico Di Gangi & Fabrizio Lillo & Davide Pirino, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk due to fire sales spillover through maximum entropy network reconstruction," Papers 1509.00607, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    32. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November.
    33. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    34. P. Tasca & S. Battiston, 2016. "Market procyclicality and systemic risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 1219-1235, August.
    35. Fernando Duarte & Thomas M. Eisenbach, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers and Systemic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1251-1294, June.
    36. Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "An Adverse-Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(3), pages 466-486, Autumn.
    37. Wolf Wagner, 2011. "Systemic Liquidation Risk and the Diversity–Diversification Trade‐Off," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1141-1175, August.
    38. F. Caccioli & M. Marsili & P. Vivo, 2009. "Eroding market stability by proliferation of financial instruments," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 467-479, October.
    39. Albert S. Kyle & Wei Xiong, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    2. Zhu, Xuening & Wang, Weining & Wang, Hansheng & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2019. "Network quantile autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 345-358.
    3. Mazzarisi, Piero & Lillo, Fabrizio & Marmi, Stefano, 2019. "When panic makes you blind: A chaotic route to systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 176-199.
    4. Rama Cont & Darrell Duffie & Paul Glasserman & Chris Rogers & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2016. "Preface to the Special Issue on Systemic Risk: Models and Mechanisms," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1053-1055, October.
    5. Duc Thi Luu, 2022. "Portfolio Correlations in the Bank-Firm Credit Market of Japan," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 529-569, August.
    6. Andreas Mühlbacher & Thomas Guhr, 2018. "Extreme Portfolio Loss Correlations in Credit Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-25, July.
    7. Lillo, Fabrizio & Livieri, Giulia & Marmi, Stefano & Solomko, Anton & Vaienti, Sandro, 2023. "Analysis of bank leverage via dynamical systems and deep neural networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119917, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Andrea Flori & Fabrizio Lillo & Fabio Pammolli & Alessandro Spelta, 2021. "Better to stay apart: asset commonality, bipartite network centrality, and investment strategies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 177-213, April.
    9. Sachapon Tungsong & Fabio Caccioli & Tomaso Aste, 2017. "Relation between regional uncertainty spillovers in the global banking system," Papers 1702.05944, arXiv.org.
    10. Poledna, Sebastian & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Caccioli, Fabio & Thurner, Stefan, 2021. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Vodenska, Irena & Aoyama, Hideaki & Becker, Alexander P. & Fujiwara, Yoshi & Iyetomi, Hiroshi & Lungu, Eliza, 2021. "From stress testing to systemic stress testing: The importance of macroprudential regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Yichen Zhou & Honggang Li, 2019. "Asset diversification and systemic risk in the financial system," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(2), pages 247-272, June.
    13. Corsi, Fulvio & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide & Trapin, Luca, 2018. "Measuring the propagation of financial distress with Granger-causality tail risk networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-36.
    14. Barnett, William A. & Wang, Xue & Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Hierarchical contagions in the interdependent financial network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    15. Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli, 2018. "Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems," Papers 1806.06941, arXiv.org.
    16. Lillo, Fabrizio & Livieri, Giulia & Marmi, Stefano & Solomko, Anton & Vaienti, Sandro, 2023. "Unimodal maps perturbed by heteroscedastic noise: an application to a financial systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Patel, Pankaj C. & Ojha, Divesh & Naskar, Shankar, 2022. "The effect of firm efficiency on firm performance: Evidence from the Domestic Production Activities Deduction Act," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    18. Piero Mazzarisi & Fabrizio Lillo & Stefano Marmi, 2018. "When panic makes you blind: a chaotic route to systemic risk," Papers 1805.00785, arXiv.org.
    19. Michel Dacorogna & Marc Busse, 2017. "The Price of Being a Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI)," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 611-616, December.
    20. Stanislao Gualdi & Giulio Cimini & Kevin Primicerio & Riccardo Di Clemente & Damien Challet, 2016. "Statistically validated network of portfolio overlaps and systemic risk," Post-Print hal-01705092, HAL.
    21. Lin, Li & Guo, Xin-Yu, 2019. "Identifying fragility for the stock market: Perspective from the portfolio overlaps network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 132-151.
    22. Shan Lu & Jichang Zhao & Huiwen Wang, 2019. "The emergence of critical stocks in market crash," Papers 1908.07244, arXiv.org.
    23. Fabrizio Lillo & Giulia Livieri & Stefano Marmi & Anton Solomko & Sandro Vaienti, 2021. "Analysis of bank leverage via dynamical systems and deep neural networks," Papers 2104.04960, arXiv.org.
    24. Fabrizio Lillo & Giulia Livieri & Stefano Marmi & Anton Solomko & Sandro Vaienti, 2023. "Unimodal Maps Perturbed by Heteroscedastic Noise: An Application to a Financial Systems," Post-Print hal-04389232, HAL.
    25. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Alan Moreira & Alexi Savov, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking," NBER Working Papers 20335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Saki Bigio & Adrien d'Avernas, 2021. "Financial Risk Capacity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 142-181, October.
    4. Aymanns, Christoph & Caccioli, Fabio & Farmer, J. Doyne & Tan, Vincent W.C., 2016. "Taming the Basel leverage cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 263-277.
    5. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    6. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    7. Mazzarisi, Piero & Lillo, Fabrizio & Marmi, Stefano, 2019. "When panic makes you blind: A chaotic route to systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 176-199.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    10. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    11. Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2023. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 869-901, May.
    12. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Paul Wachtel, 2021. "When to Lean against the Wind," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 5-39, February.
    13. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    14. Tyler Muir, 2017. "Financial Crises and Risk Premia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 765-809.
    15. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    16. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2015. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part I: Financial crises," Economics wp68, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    17. Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide, 2015. "The impact of systemic and illiquidity risk on financing with risky collateral," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 180-202.
    18. Greenwood, Robin & Landier, Augustin & Thesmar, David, 2015. "Vulnerable banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 471-485.
    19. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    20. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:64:y:2016:i:5:p:1073-1088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.