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Inadimplência de Crédito e Ciclo Econômico: um exame da relação no mercado brasileiro de crédito corporativo

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  • Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins
  • Myrian Beatriz Eiras das Neves

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine empirically whether the default of borrower companies in the Brazilian market rises in downturns. To this end, a probit model for the probability of default is developed based on credit microdata taken from the Credit Information System of the Central Bank of Brazil (SCR) and on macroeconomic variables. Our results provide evidence of a strong negative relationship between business cycle and credit default, going in accord to the literature dealing with corporate data. These effects are stronger than those found in our previous article for the case of default of individuals. This is an expected result, since the retail credit is more sprayed than the corporate credit. The macroeconomic variables that have the greatest effect on corporate defaults were GDP growth and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Myrian Beatriz Eiras das Neves, 2013. "Inadimplência de Crédito e Ciclo Econômico: um exame da relação no mercado brasileiro de crédito corporativo," Working Papers Series 304, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:304
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Correa, Arnildo & Marins, Jaqueline & Neves, Myrian & da Silva, Antonio Carlos, 2014. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
    2. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    3. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
    4. Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Mitigating the pro-cyclicality of Basel II [Bank loan loss provisions: a re-examination of capital management, earnings management and signalling effects]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 659-702.
    5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Lando, David & Nielsen, Mads Stenbo, 2010. "Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 355-372, July.
    8. Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
    9. Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
    10. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
    11. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
    12. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Machado, Vicente da Gama & Portugal, Marcelo Savino, 2014. "Measuring inflation persistence in Brazil using a multivariate model," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    2. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2013. "Complex networks and banking systems supervision," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4429-4434.

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