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Modeling and Forecasting Energy Markets with the Intermediate Future Forecasting System

Author

Listed:
  • Frederic H. Murphy

    (Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

  • John J. Conti

    (Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C.)

  • Susan H. Shaw

    (Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C.)

  • Reginald Sanders

    (CACI-Federal, Arlington, Virginia)

Abstract

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the major fuels consumed in the United States, and is a partial equilibrium model containing a large number of equations and inequalities. We discuss methods for solving the models, as well as the convergence properties of the solution procedure. We also present issues associated with managing large models.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederic H. Murphy & John J. Conti & Susan H. Shaw & Reginald Sanders, 1988. "Modeling and Forecasting Energy Markets with the Intermediate Future Forecasting System," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 406-420, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:36:y:1988:i:3:p:406-420
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.36.3.406
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kydes, Andy S., 2007. "Impacts of a renewable portfolio generation standard on US energy markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 809-814, February.
    2. William W. Hogan, 2002. "Energy Modeling for Policy Studies," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 89-95, February.
    3. Matar, Walid & Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Rioux, Bertrand, 2015. "Lowering Saudi Arabia's fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 558-569.
    4. Gabriel, Steven A. & Zhuang, Jifang & Kiet, Supat, 2005. "A large-scale linear complementarity model of the North American natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 639-665, July.
    5. Egging, Rudolf G. & Gabriel, Steven A., 2006. "Examining market power in the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2762-2778, November.
    6. Melinda Hobbs & Michael Mellish & Frederic H. Murphy & Richard Newcombe & Reginald Sanders & Peter Whitman, 2001. "Rebuilding the Coal Model in the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(5), pages 24-42, October.
    7. Frederic H. Murphy & Murthy V. Mudrageda, 1998. "A Decomposition Approach for a Class of Economic Equilibrium Models," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 368-377, June.
    8. J. Fuller & William Chung, 2005. "Dantzig—Wolfe Decomposition of Variational Inequalities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(4), pages 303-326, June.
    9. W. Chung & J. Fuller & Y. Wu, 2003. "A New Demand-Supply Decomposition Method for a Class of Economic Equilibrium Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 231-243, June.
    10. Steven A. Gabriel & Supat Kiet & Jifang Zhuang, 2005. "A Mixed Complementarity-Based Equilibrium Model of Natural Gas Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 799-818, October.
    11. Steven A. Gabriel & Andy S. Kydes & Peter Whitman, 2001. "The National Energy Modeling System: A Large-Scale Energy-Economic Equilibrium Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(1), pages 14-25, February.
    12. Davis, Clay D. & Gotham, Douglas J. & Preckel, Paul V. & Liu, Andrew L., 2013. "Determining the impact of wind on system costs via the temporal patterns of load and wind generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 122-131.
    13. Frederic H. Murphy & Zhong Xian Wang, 1993. "A network reformulation of an electric utility expansion planning model," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 451-457, June.
    14. Yves Smeers, 1997. "Computable Equilibrium Models and the Restructuring of the European Electricity and Gas Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 18(4), pages 1-31, October.
    15. GABRIEL, Steven & SMEERS, Yves, 2005. "Complementarity problems in restructured natural gas markets," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    16. William Chung & J. David Fuller, 2010. "Subproblem Approximation in Dantzig-Wolfe Decomposition of Variational Inequality Models with an Application to a Multicommodity Economic Equilibrium Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1318-1327, October.

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