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Rebuilding the Coal Model in the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System

Author

Listed:
  • Melinda Hobbs

    (Energy Information Administration, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585)

  • Michael Mellish

    (Energy Information Administration)

  • Frederic H. Murphy

    (School of Business and Management, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19122)

  • Richard Newcombe

    (Energy Information Administration)

  • Reginald Sanders

    (OnLocation, 8100 Oak Street, Suite 300, Arlington, Virginia 22027)

  • Peter Whitman

    (Pace Global Energy Services, 4401 Fair Lakes Court, Suite 400, Fairfax, Virginia 22033)

Abstract

The Energy Information Administration uses the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to forecast prices and quantities in energy markets. The coal model that the Energy Information Administration first used in NEMS contributed to convergence problems in NEMS because of its design. Furthermore, because the coal model could not be modified efficiently to incorporate the new sulfur dioxide market created by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, we had to build a new model. Building the new model also allowed us to incorporate improved knowledge about coal resources and other aspects of coal markets, further improving the quality of the forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Melinda Hobbs & Michael Mellish & Frederic H. Murphy & Richard Newcombe & Reginald Sanders & Peter Whitman, 2001. "Rebuilding the Coal Model in the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(5), pages 24-42, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:31:y:2001:i:5:p:24-42
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.31.5.24.9651
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thanh Luong & Frederic H. Murphy & Reginald Sanders & Susan H. Holte & Peter Whitman, 1998. "Modeling the Impacts of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Frederic H. Murphy, 1993. "Making Large-Scale Models Manageable: Modeling from an Operations Management Perspective," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 241-252, April.
    3. Frederic H. Murphy & John J. Conti & Susan H. Shaw & Reginald Sanders, 1988. "Modeling and Forecasting Energy Markets with the Intermediate Future Forecasting System," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 406-420, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wilkerson, Jordan T. & Cullenward, Danny & Davidian, Danielle & Weyant, John P., 2013. "End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 773-784.

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