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Oil Stockpiles and Import Reductions: A Dynamic Programming Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hung-Po Chao

    (Electric Power Research Institutes, Palo Alto, California)

  • Alan S. Manne

    (Stanford University, Stanford, California)

Abstract

This paper analyzes oil stockpiling policies using models in which U.S. policy choices are restricted to just two instruments—stockpiles and disruption “tariffs.” The model considers the influence of U.S. (and, in general, OECD) import demands upon the OPEC price for oil, and the duration and severity of oil disruptions induced by disturbances among the OPEC nations. Our development is based upon a probabilistic view of disruptions analyzed by applying dynamic programming.

Suggested Citation

  • Hung-Po Chao & Alan S. Manne, 1983. "Oil Stockpiles and Import Reductions: A Dynamic Programming Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 632-651, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:31:y:1983:i:4:p:632-651
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.31.4.632
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest, 2017. "Informing SPR Policy Through Oil Futures and Inventory Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 23974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Murphy, Frederic & Oliveira, Fernando S., 2013. "Pricing option contracts on the strategic petroleum reserve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-250.
    3. Xie, Nan & Yan, Zhijun & Zhou, Yi & Huang, Wenjun, 2017. "China's optimal stockpiling policies in the context of new oil price trend," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 332-340.
    4. Fan, Ying & Zhang, Xiao-Bing, 2010. "Modelling the strategic petroleum reserves of China and India by a stochastic dynamic game," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 505-519, July.
    5. Ilyes Abid & Stéphane Goutte & Farid Mkaouar & Khaled Guesmi, 2019. "Optimal strategy between extraction and storage of crude oil," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 3-26, October.
    6. Wu, Gang & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1470-1478, April.
    7. Murphy, Frederic & Oliveira, Fernando S., 2010. "Developing a market-based approach to managing the US strategic petroleum reserve," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 488-495, October.
    8. Bai, Y. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Zhang, L.B., 2012. "Optimal path for China's strategic petroleum reserve: A dynamic programming analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1058-1063.
    9. Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Zheng, Xinye & Qin, Ping & Xie, Lunyu, 2018. "Oil import tariff game for energy security: The case of China and India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 255-262.
    10. Chen, Xin & Mu, Hailin & Li, Huanan & Gui, Shusen, 2014. "Using stockpile delegation to improve China׳s strategic oil policy: A multi-dimension stochastic dynamic programming approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 28-42.
    11. Jiao, Jian-Ling & Han, Kuang-Yi & Wu, Gang & Li, Lan-Lan & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2014. "The effect of an SPR on the oil price in China: A system dynamics approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 363-373.
    12. Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Nielsen, Chris & Lu, Xi & McElroy, Michael B., 2012. "A dynamic programming model of China's strategic petroleum reserve: General strategy and the effect of emergencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1234-1243.
    13. Zhang, Xiao-Bing, 2014. "Optimal strategic oil stockpiling and import tariffs: The case of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 463-474.

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