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Feature Article—Decision-Aiding Models: Validation, Assessment, and Related Issues for Policy Analysis

Author

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  • Saul I. Gass

    (University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland)

Abstract

The extension of OR decision-aiding models and OR methodology from operational and technological settings to the field of policy analysis has caused analysts and users to question whether the OR process can handle the requirements of this new area. This paper reviews the evolving nature of OR methodology, the difficulties that have arisen in applying it, and the attempts to improve the use of OR methodology in policy analysis. The analyst's role in providing information to the user to determine whether and how a specific OR model can be used as a decision aid is emphasized. Relevant information for the analyst to provide covers model validation, assessment, utility, confidence and documentation.

Suggested Citation

  • Saul I. Gass, 1983. "Feature Article—Decision-Aiding Models: Validation, Assessment, and Related Issues for Policy Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 603-631, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:31:y:1983:i:4:p:603-631
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.31.4.603
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanjith Gopalakrishnan & Daniel Granot & Frieda Granot, 2021. "Consistent Allocation of Emission Responsibility in Fossil Fuel Supply Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7637-7668, December.
    2. David C. Lane & Birgit Kopainsky & David C. Lane, 2017. "‘Behavioural System Dynamics’: A Very Tentative and Slightly Sceptical Map of the Territory," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 414-423, July.
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    4. Augusiak, Jacqueline & Van den Brink, Paul J. & Grimm, Volker, 2014. "Merging validation and evaluation of ecological models to ‘evaludation’: A review of terminology and a practical approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 280(C), pages 117-128.
    5. Rau, Philipp & Spinler, Stefan, 2017. "Alliance formation in a cooperative container shipping game: Performance of a real options investment approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 155-175.
    6. Daniel Hach & Stefan Spinler, 2018. "Robustness of capacity markets: a stochastic dynamic capacity investment model," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(2), pages 517-540, March.
    7. Zachary A. Collier & James H. Lambert, 2019. "Principles and methods of model validation for model risk reduction," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 146-153, June.
    8. Ernest H. Forman & Saul I. Gass, 2001. "The Analytic Hierarchy Process---An Exposition," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(4), pages 469-486, August.
    9. Frederic H. Murphy, 2005. "ASP, The Art and Science of Practice: Elements of a Theory of the Practice of Operations Research: Expertise in Practice," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 35(4), pages 313-322, August.
    10. Arnold Reisman & Muhittin Oral, 2005. "Soft Systems Methodology: A Context Within a 50-Year Retrospective of OR/MS," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 35(2), pages 164-178, April.
    11. Mario Holzner, 2004. "GSIM Measurement of the Costs of Protection in Southeast Europe," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 55, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    12. Troost, Christian & Huber, Robert & Bell, Andrew R. & van Delden, Hedwig & Filatova, Tatiana & Le, Quang Bao & Lippe, Melvin & Niamir, Leila & Polhill, J. Gareth & Sun, Zhanli & Berger, Thomas, 2023. "How to keep it adequate: A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 159, pages 1-21.
    13. Haehl, Christian & Spinler, Stefan, 2018. "Capacity expansion under regulatory uncertainty:A real options-based study in international container shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 75-93.
    14. Chi, Yuan-ying & Zhao, Hao & Hu, Yu & Yuan, Yong-ke & Pang, Yue-xia, 2022. "The impact of allocation methods on carbon emission trading under electricity marketization reform in China: A system dynamics analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    15. İ. Esra Büyüktahtakın & Robert G. Haight, 2018. "A review of operations research models in invasive species management: state of the art, challenges, and future directions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 357-403, December.
    16. Frederic H. Murphy, 2014. "Saul Gass, a Tribute to Him and to His Leadership in Model Assessment and Validation," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 105-107, February.
    17. Grimm, Volker & Augusiak, Jacqueline & Focks, Andreas & Frank, Béatrice M. & Gabsi, Faten & Johnston, Alice S.A. & Liu, Chun & Martin, Benjamin T. & Meli, Mattia & Radchuk, Viktoriia & Thorbek, Pernil, 2014. "Towards better modelling and decision support: Documenting model development, testing, and analysis using TRACE," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 280(C), pages 129-139.
    18. Lane, David & Husemann, Elke & Holland, Darren & Khaled, Abdul, 2019. "Understanding foodborne transmission mechanisms for Norovirus: A study for the UK's Food Standards Agency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 721-736.
    19. Aditya U. Kulkarni & Alejandro Salado & Peng Xu & Christian Wernz, 2021. "An evaluation of the optimality of frequent verification for vertically integrated systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 17-33, January.
    20. David C. Lane & Özge Pala & Yaman Barlas & David C. Lane, 2015. "Validity is a Matter of Confidence—But Not Just in System Dynamics," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 450-458, July.
    21. Yilun Luo & Esmaeil Ahmadi & Benjamin C. McLellan & Tetsuo Tezuka, 2022. "Will Capacity Mechanisms Conflict with Carbon Pricing?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.
    22. Ghritlahre, Harish Kumar & Prasad, Radha Krishna, 2018. "Application of ANN technique to predict the performance of solar collector systems - A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 75-88.

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