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Incorporating Component and System Test Data into the Same Assessment: A Bayesian Approach

Author

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  • David V. Mastran

    (Maximus, Inc., Great Falls, Virginia)

Abstract

On occasion, reliability analysts have test data gathered both at the component level of a multicomponent system and at the system level. When the system test data provide no information on component performance, classical statistical techniques in all but trivial cases do not allow using both sets of data. We present a Bayesian procedure that does allow using both sets. The procedure for attribute data makes use of a lemma that relates the moments of the prior and posterior distributions of reliability to the test data. The procedure for variables data assumes the time to failure distribution of each component is exponential.

Suggested Citation

  • David V. Mastran, 1976. "Incorporating Component and System Test Data into the Same Assessment: A Bayesian Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 491-499, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:24:y:1976:i:3:p:491-499
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.24.3.491
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    Cited by:

    1. Anderson-Cook, Christine M. & Crowder, Stephen & Huzurbazar, Aparna V. & Lorio, John & Ringland, James & Wilson, Alyson G., 2011. "Quantifying reliability uncertainty from catastrophic and margin defects: A proof of concept," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 1063-1075.
    2. C Jackson & A Mosleh, 2012. "Downwards inference: Bayesian analysis of overlapping higher-level data sets of complex binary-state on-demand systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(2), pages 182-193, April.
    3. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03634370, HAL.
    4. Roger Zoh & Alyson Wilson & Scott Vander Wiel & Earl Lawrence, 2018. "The negative log-gamma prior distribution for Bayesian assessment of system reliability," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 232(3), pages 308-319, June.
    5. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Post-Print hal-03634370, HAL.
    6. Jackson, Chris & Mosleh, Ali, 2012. "Bayesian inference with overlapping data for systems with continuous life metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 217-231.
    7. Jackson, Chris & Mosleh, Ali, 2016. "Bayesian inference with overlapping data: Reliability estimation of multi-state on-demand continuous life metric systems with uncertain evidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 124-135.
    8. C Jacksonn & A Mosleh, 2012. "Bayesian inference with overlapping data: methodology for reliability estimation of multi-state on-demand systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(3), pages 283-294, June.
    9. Jorgen-Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 326(1), pages 295-316, July.

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