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Quantifying reliability uncertainty from catastrophic and margin defects: A proof of concept

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  • Anderson-Cook, Christine M.
  • Crowder, Stephen
  • Huzurbazar, Aparna V.
  • Lorio, John
  • Ringland, James
  • Wilson, Alyson G.

Abstract

We aim to analyze the effects of component level reliability data, including both catastrophic failures and margin failures, on system level reliability. While much work has been done to analyze margins and uncertainties at the component level, a gap exists in relating this component level analysis to the system level. We apply methodologies for aggregating uncertainty from component level data to quantify overall system uncertainty. We explore three approaches towards this goal, the classical Method of Moments (MOM), Bayesian, and Bootstrap methods. These three approaches are used to quantify the uncertainty in reliability for a system of mixed series and parallel components for which both pass/fail and continuous margin data are available. This paper provides proof of concept that uncertainty quantification methods can be constructed and applied to system reliability problems. In addition, application of these methods demonstrates that the results from the three fundamentally different approaches can be quite comparable.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson-Cook, Christine M. & Crowder, Stephen & Huzurbazar, Aparna V. & Lorio, John & Ringland, James & Wilson, Alyson G., 2011. "Quantifying reliability uncertainty from catastrophic and margin defects: A proof of concept," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 1063-1075.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:9:p:1063-1075
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.10.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David V. Mastran, 1976. "Incorporating Component and System Test Data into the Same Assessment: A Bayesian Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 491-499, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2020. "Property values associated with the failure of individual links in a system with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2020. "Margins associated with loss of assured safety for systems with multiple weak links and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).

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