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Models of a Total Criminal Justice System

Author

Listed:
  • Alfred Blumstein

    (Institute for Defense Analyses, Arlington, Virginia)

  • Richard Larson

    (Institute for Defense Analyses, Arlington, Virginia)

Abstract

The need to examine the total criminal justice system—police, prosecution, courts, and correction agencies—in an integrated way constitutes a central problem in improving law enforcement. Too, any such analysis must reflect the feedback into society of offenders released at various stages in the system. This paper formulates a model for the criminal justice system in one state; it depicts the flow of arrested persons through the system as a function of type of crime, and provides a basis for apportioning costs to system components and to types of crime. The model's feedback feature includes the probability of rearrest as a decreasing function of age and a crime-switch matrix reflecting the successive-crime distribution. The results from the model include a cost distribution by crime type, criminal-career costs, an examination of the courses of criminal careers, and estimates of the sensitivities of costs and offender flows within the system to changes in its controllable variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred Blumstein & Richard Larson, 1969. "Models of a Total Criminal Justice System," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 199-232, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:17:y:1969:i:2:p:199-232
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.17.2.199
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Petersen & Donald Papy & Alejandro Mouro & Barak Ariel, 2023. "The usage and utility of body‐worn camera footage in courts: A survey analysis of state prosecutors," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(3), pages 534-569, September.
    2. Alfred Blumstein, 2002. "Crime Modeling 1," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 16-24, February.
    3. Bansal, Komal & Mathur, Trilok & Agarwal, Shivi, 2023. "Fractional-order crime propagation model with non-linear transmission rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Kenneth Avio, 1998. "The Economics of Prisons," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 143-175, September.
    5. Pritam, Kocherlakota Satya & Sugandha, & Mathur, Trilok & Agarwal, Shivi, 2021. "Underlying dynamics of crime transmission with memory," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Richard Charles Larson, 2002. "Public Sector Operations Research: A Personal Journey," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 135-145, February.
    7. Auerhahn, Kathleen, 2008. "Dynamic systems simulation analysis: A planning tool for the new century," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 293-300, August.

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