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A Lanchester Model of Guerrilla Warfare

Author

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  • S. J. Deitchman

    (Institute for Defense Analyses, Washington, D. C.)

Abstract

A variation of the Lanchester equations is applied to exploration of the force ratios required to win in guerrilla-counterguerrilla warfare. It is shown that an attacking guerrilla force can, by using tactics that compensate for its weaknesses, defeat a force of defending regulars that has over-all superiority in numbers and weapons. The defenders can win by appropriate selection of weapons, countertactics, and group sizes for individual engagements. In general, however, the high over-all ratios of defending regulars to attacking guerillas that have characterized recent warfare of this kind in which the defense has been successful are extremely difficult to reduce.

Suggested Citation

  • S. J. Deitchman, 1962. "A Lanchester Model of Guerrilla Warfare," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 10(6), pages 818-827, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:10:y:1962:i:6:p:818-827
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.10.6.818
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    Cited by:

    1. Luterbacher Urs & Sandi Carmen, 2014. "Breaking the Dynamics of Emotions and Fear in Conflict and Reconstruction," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 479-522, August.
    2. Chad W. Seagren & Donald P. Gaver & Patricia A. Jacobs, 2019. "A stochastic air combat logistics decision model for Blue versus Red opposition," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(8), pages 663-674, December.
    3. Patrick S. Chen & Peter Chu, 2001. "Applying Lanchester's linear law to model the Ardennes campaign," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(8), pages 653-661, December.
    4. Anelí Bongers & José L. Torres, 2021. "A bottleneck combat model: an application to the Battle of Thermopylae," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 2859-2877, December.
    5. Gerardo Minguela-Castro & Ruben Heradio & Carlos Cerrada, 2021. "Automated Support for Battle Operational–Strategic Decision-Making," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-15, June.
    6. Michael J. Armstrong, 2013. "The salvo combat model with area fire," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(8), pages 652-660, December.
    7. Ian R. Johnson & Niall J. MacKay, 2011. "Lanchester models and the battle of Britain," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(3), pages 210-222, April.
    8. C-Y Hung & G K Yang & P S Deng & T Tang & S-P Lan & P Chu, 2005. "Fitting Lanchester's square law to the Ardennes Campaign," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(8), pages 942-946, August.
    9. Yuewen Liu & Juan Feng, 2021. "Does Money Talk? The Impact of Monetary Incentives on User-Generated Content Contributions," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(2), pages 394-409, June.
    10. Kolebaje, Olusola & Popoola, Oyebola & Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Oyewande, Oluwole, 2020. "An epidemiological approach to insurgent population modeling with the Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. N J MacKay, 2009. "Lanchester models for mixed forces with semi-dynamical target allocation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(10), pages 1421-1427, October.
    12. Manh D Hy & My A Vu & Nam H Nguyen & Anh N Ta & Dinh V Bui, 2020. "Optimization in an asymmetric Lanchester (n, 1) model," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(1), pages 117-122, January.
    13. Moshe Kress, 2020. "Lanchester Models for Irregular Warfare," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-14, May.
    14. Michael P. Atkinson & Moshe Kress & Niall J. MacKay, 2021. "Targeting, Deployment, and Loss-Tolerance in Lanchester Engagements," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 71-81, January.
    15. Yuri M. Zhukov, 2014. "Theory of Indiscriminate Violence," Working Paper 365551, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    16. Albert Wohlstetter, 1968. "Theory and opposed-systems design," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 12(3), pages 302-331, September.
    17. Kress, Moshe & Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Feichtinger, Gustav & Grass, Dieter & Seidl, Andrea, 2018. "Lanchester model for three-way combat," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 46-54.
    18. Jaiswal, N. K. & Sangeeta, Y. & Gaur, S. C., 1995. "Stochastic analysis of combat models under different termination decision rules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 530-546, June.
    19. Moshe Kress & Roberto Szechtman, 2009. "Why Defeating Insurgencies Is Hard: The Effect of Intelligence in Counterinsurgency Operations---A Best-Case Scenario," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 578-585, June.
    20. Edward H. Kaplan & Moshe Kress & Roberto Szechtman, 2010. "Confronting Entrenched Insurgents," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 329-341, April.
    21. Burton Lucy & Johnson Shane D. & Braithwaite Alex, 2017. "Potential uses of Numerical Simulation for the Modelling of Civil Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-39, January.

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