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Do High-Frequency Traders Anticipate Buying and Selling Pressure?

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  • Nicholas Hirschey

    (Department of Finance, London Business School, Regent’s Park, London NW1 4SA, United Kingdom)

Abstract

This study provides evidence that high-frequency traders (HFTs) identify patterns in past trades and orders that allow them to anticipate and trade ahead of other investors’ order flow. Specifically, HFTs’ aggressive purchases and sales lead those of other investors, and this effect is stronger at times when it is more difficult for non-HFTs to disguise their order flow. Consistent with some HFTs being more skilled or more focused on anticipatory strategies, I show that trades from a subset of HFTs consistently predict non-HFT order flow the best. The results are not explained by HFTs reacting faster to news or past returns, by contrarian or trend-chasing behavior by non-HFTs, or by trader misclassification. These findings support the existence of an anticipatory trading channel through which HFTs increase non-HFT trading costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Hirschey, 2021. "Do High-Frequency Traders Anticipate Buying and Selling Pressure?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3321-3345, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:67:y:2021:i:6:p:3321-3345
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3608
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    1. van Kervel, Vincent & Kwan, Amy & Westerholm, P. Joakim, 2023. "Order splitting and interacting with a counterparty," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Ziyi Xu & Xue Cheng, 2024. "Trading Large Orders in the Presence of Multiple High-Frequency Anticipatory Traders," Papers 2403.08202, arXiv.org.
    3. Xue Cheng & Meng Wang & Ziyi Xu, 2024. "Mean Field Game of High-Frequency Anticipatory Trading," Papers 2404.18200, arXiv.org.
    4. Dang, Viet Anh & Nguyen, Dinh Trung & Pham, Thu Phuong & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2024. "The dynamics of informed trading around corporate bankruptcies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Ge, Hengshun & Yang, Haijun & Doukas, John A., 2024. "The optimal strategies of competitive high-frequency traders and effects on market liquidity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 653-679.
    6. Banerjee, Anirban & Nawn, Samarpan, 2024. "Proprietary algorithmic traders and liquidity supply during the pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Sağlam, Mehmet, 2024. "High frequency market making: The role of speed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(2).
    8. Hayashi, Takaki & Nishide, Katsumasa, 2024. "Strategic liquidity provision in high-frequency trading," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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