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A Model of Probabilistic Choice Satisfying First-Order Stochastic Dominance

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  • Pavlo R. Blavatskyy

    (Institute of Public Finance, University of Innsbruck, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria)

Abstract

This paper presents a new model of probabilistic binary choice under risk. In this model, a decision maker always satisfies first-order stochastic dominance. If neither lottery stochastically dominates the other alternative, a decision maker chooses in a probabilistic manner. The proposed model is derived from four standard axioms (completeness, weak stochastic transitivity, continuity, and common consequence independence) and two relatively new axioms. The proposed model provides a better fit to experimental data than do existing models. The baseline model can be extended to other domains such as modeling variable consumer demand. This paper was accepted by Peter Wakker, decision analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlo R. Blavatskyy, 2011. "A Model of Probabilistic Choice Satisfying First-Order Stochastic Dominance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 542-548, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:3:p:542-548
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1100.1285
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Levy, Moshe, 2022. "An inter-temporal CAPM based on First order Stochastic Dominance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 734-739.
    2. Romain Gauriot & Stephanie A. Heger & Robert Slonim, 2022. "Eliciting Preferences for Risk and Altruism: Experimental Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9993, CESifo.
    3. Daniel Navarro-Martinez & Graham Loomes & Andrea Isoni & David Butler & Larbi Alaoui, 2018. "Boundedly rational expected utility theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 199-223, December.
    4. Dagsvik, John K., 2015. "Stochastic models for risky choices: A comparison of different axiomatizations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 81-88.
    5. Blavatskyy, Pavlo R., 2012. "Probabilistic subjective expected utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 47-50.
    6. Michael H. Birnbaum & Ulrich Schmidt & Miriam D. Schneider, 2017. "Testing independence conditions in the presence of errors and splitting effects," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 61-85, February.
    7. Levy, Moshe, 2019. "Stocks for the log-run and constant relative risk aversion preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 1163-1168.
    8. Graham Loomes & Inmaculada Rodríguez-Puerta & Jose-Luis Pinto-Prades, 2014. "Comment on “A Model of Probabilistic Choice Satisfying First-Order Stochastic Dominance” by Pavlo Blavatskyy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1346-1350, May.
    9. Blavatskyy, Pavlo, 2016. "Probability weighting and L-moments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 103-109.
    10. Matthew Ryan, 2018. "Uncertainty and binary stochastic choice," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(3), pages 629-662, May.
    11. Matthew Ryan, 2021. "Stochastic expected utility for binary choice: a ‘modular’ axiomatic foundation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(2), pages 641-669, September.
    12. Tigran Melkonyan & Zvi Safra, 2016. "Intrinsic Variability in Group and Individual Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(9), pages 2651-2667, September.
    13. Blavatskyy, Pavlo, 2013. "Which decision theory?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 40-44.
    14. Blavatskyy, Pavlo, 2015. "Behavior in the centipede game: A decision-theoretical perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 117-122.
    15. Richard, Thibault & Baudin, Valentin, 2020. "Asymmetric noise and systematic biases: A new look at the Trade-Off method," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    16. Matthew Ryan, 2020. "Reconciling dominance and stochastic transitivity in random binary choice," Working Papers 2020-05, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    17. Blavatskyy, Pavlo R., 2017. "Probabilistic intertemporal choice," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 142-148.
    18. Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2014. "Stronger utility," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 76(2), pages 265-286, February.
    19. David Butler & Andrea Isoni & Graham Loomes, 2012. "Testing the ‘standard’ model of stochastic choice under risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 191-213, December.
    20. David Butler & Andrea Isoni & Graham Loomes & Kei Tsutsui, 2014. "Beyond choice: investigating the sensitivity and validity of measures of strength of preference," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(4), pages 537-563, December.
    21. Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2018. "A Refinement of Logit Quantal Response Equilibrium," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-14, June.
    22. Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2021. "Probabilistic independence axiom," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 46(1), pages 21-34, March.

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