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Belief Assessment: An Underdeveloped Phase of Probability Elicitation

Author

Listed:
  • P. George Benson

    (Graduate School of Management, Rutgers University, 81 New Street, Newark, New Jersey 07102)

  • Shawn P. Curley

    (Curtis L. Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, 271 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455)

  • Gerald F. Smith

    (College of Business Administration, University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, Iowa 50614)

Abstract

A cognitive analysis of subjective probability is applied to the evaluation of techniques used by decision analysts for eliciting probabilities from experts. The construction of a subjective probability requires both the formation of a belief and the assessment of a probability that qualifies the belief. The former process involves judgment and reasoning; the latter is purely judgmental. Subjective probabilities have traditionally been portrayed and studied as arising from judgment. Consequently, belief assessment procedures have been particularly underdeveloped. Procedures currently used by analysts to and belief assessment are classified and evaluated. Although such procedures facilitate the communication of beliefs and offer important guidance for constructing probabilities, additional prescriptive development is possible. It is argued that significant improvements in assessment practice can be realized by providing better support for the reasoning employed by experts in belief assessment. Opportunities for descriptive and prescriptive research in belief assessment are identified.

Suggested Citation

  • P. George Benson & Shawn P. Curley & Gerald F. Smith, 1995. "Belief Assessment: An Underdeveloped Phase of Probability Elicitation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(10), pages 1639-1653, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:41:y:1995:i:10:p:1639-1653
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.41.10.1639
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    Cited by:

    1. Cameron, Trudy Ann, 2005. "Individual option prices for climate change mitigation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 283-301, February.
    2. Cristina Bicchieri & Eugen Dimant, 2018. "It's Not A Lie If You Believe It. Lying and Belief Distortion Under Norm-Uncertainty," PPE Working Papers 0012, Philosophy, Politics and Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Stone, Eric R. & Opel, Ryan B., 2000. "Training to Improve Calibration and Discrimination: The Effects of Performance and Environmental Feedback," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 282-309, November.
    4. Daniel E. O’Leary, 2011. "The Emergence of Individual Knowledge in a Group Setting: Mitigating Cognitive Fallacies," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 3-18, January.
    5. Browne, Glenn J. & Curley, Shawn P. & Benson, P. George, 1999. "The Effects of Subject-Defined Categories on Judgmental Accuracy in Confidence Assessment Tasks, , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 134-154, November.
    6. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.

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