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Tests of the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Using Bookmaker Odds

Author

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  • Ron Bird

    (Commerce Department, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia)

  • Michael McCrae

    (Commerce Department, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate the informational efficiency of the market for betting on horse races. Whereas the price data used in previous studies have been drawn largely from totalizator (parimutuel) odds, the data used in this study are derived from bookmaker odds. The availability of a series of prices throughout betting facilitates the use of filter tests to evaluate market efficiency. We conclude that this gambling market is efficient in the use of information supplied via both the movements in odds during the course of betting and the selections of newspaper tipsters. However, there is evidence to suggest that those with access to private information can earn positive returns from gambling.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Bird & Michael McCrae, 1987. "Tests of the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Using Bookmaker Odds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(12), pages 1552-1562, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:12:p:1552-1562
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.33.12.1552
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    Cited by:

    1. Smith, Michael A. & Paton, David & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2009. "Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 539-549, August.
    2. Paton, David & Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Fraser, Stuart, 1999. "Regulating Insider Trading in Betting Markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 237-241, July.
    3. Piotr Borowski & Marcin Chlebus, 2021. "Machine learning in the prediction of flat horse racing results in Poland," Working Papers 2021-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    4. John Peirson & Michael A. Smith, 2010. "Symposium Expert Analysis and Insider Information in Horse Race Betting: Regulating Informed Market Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 976-992, April.
    5. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. John Peirson & Michael A. Smith, 2010. "Expert Analysis and Insider Information in Horse Race Betting: Regulating Informed Market Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 976-992, April.
    7. Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 1999. "Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: A Survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, January.
    8. Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Stekler, Herman O., 2010. "Sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 445-447, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
    9. Les Coleman, 2007. "Just How Serious is Insider Trading? An Evaluation using Thoroughbred Wagering Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 31-55, February.
    10. John Peirson & Michael A. Smith, 2010. "Symposium Expert Analysis and Insider Information in Horse Race Betting: Regulating Informed Market Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 976-992, April.
    11. Buhagiar, Ranier & Cortis, Dominic & Newall, Philip W.S., 2018. "Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 85-93.
    12. Williams, Leighton Vaughan & Paton, David, 1997. "Why Is There a Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 150-158, January.
    13. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
    14. Martin S. Fridson, 1993. "I'Ve Got The Horse Right Here: Sports Betting And Market Efficiency," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 6(2), pages 88-90, June.
    15. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    16. Les Coleman, 2004. "New light on the longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 315-326.
    17. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2019. "On the efficiency of racetrack betting market: a new test for the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5817-5828, November.
    18. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
    19. Timothy J. Brailsford & Philip K. Gray & Stephen A. Easton & Stephen F. Gray, 1995. "The Efficiency of Australian Football Betting Markets," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 20(2), pages 167-195, December.
    20. Grant, Andrew & Johnstone, David & Kwon, Oh Kang, 2019. "The cost of capital in a prediction market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 313-320.
    21. Ian Milliner & Paul White & Don J. Webber, 2009. "A Statistical Development of Fixed Odds Betting Rules in Soccer," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 89-99, April.
    22. Johnnie E. V. Johnson & Owen Jones & Leilei Tang, 2006. "Exploring Decision Makers' Use of Price Information in a Speculative Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(6), pages 897-908, June.

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