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Airline Safety: Some Empirical Findings

Author

Listed:
  • Arnold Barnett

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Michael Abraham

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Victor Schimmel

    (Amherst Associates, Walnut Creek, California)

Abstract

We consider the fatal accident records of 58 major world airlines, and in particular try to compare appropriately the safety records of airlines whose route structures overlap and which thus compete for passengers. We separately review data about the 18 principal U.S. domestic airlines and 40 major international flag carriers. A good part of effort involves trying to develop sensible measures of safety performance, and considering differences between airlines that might make misleading the direct comparison of their accident rates. Our analysis leads us to conclude that: (1) As a group, the U.S. domestic carriers have achieved a safety record that is excellent in both absolute and relative terms. There is no real basis for identifying any of them as especially safe or especially dangerous, for the disparities in their observed accident records are smaller than would be expected from chance fluctuations alone. (2) Among international airlines, however, divergences in safety records arise that are both substantial and statistically significant. Generally speaking, large airlines from "Westernized" countries seem demonstrably safer than those from most countries in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. (3) In all segments of the airline industry, fatality rates have dropped over 50% in the last 15 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold Barnett & Michael Abraham & Victor Schimmel, 1979. "Airline Safety: Some Empirical Findings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(11), pages 1045-1056, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:25:y:1979:i:11:p:1045-1056
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.25.11.1045
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fulton, Neale L. & Westcott, Mark & Emery, Stephen, 2009. "Decision support for risk assessment of mid-air collisions via population-based measures," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 150-169, February.
    2. McFadden, Kathleen L & Towell, Elizabeth R, 1999. "Aviation human factors: a framework for the new millennium," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 177-184.
    3. Laura A. McLay & Sheldon H. Jacobson & John E. Kobza, 2006. "A multilevel passenger screening problem for aviation security," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 183-197, April.
    4. Alexander G. Nikolaev & Sheldon H. Jacobson & Laura A. McLay, 2007. "A Sequential Stochastic Security System Design Problem for Aviation Security," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 182-194, May.
    5. Robin L. Dillon & Blake E. Johnson & M. Elisabeth Patè‐Cornell, 1999. "Risk Assessment Based on Financial Data: Market Response to Airline Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 473-486, June.
    6. David Czerwinski & Arnold Barnett, 2006. "Airlines as Baseball Players: Another Approach for Evaluating an Equal-Safety Hypothesis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1291-1300, September.

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