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The Use of the Delphi Procedures in Manpower Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • George T. Milkovich

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Anthony J. Annoni

    (Union Carbide, Inc.)

  • Thomas A. Mahoney

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

This paper is a case study in the development, implementation and evaluation of the delphi technique, which systematically makes use of expert judgment in generating manpower forecasts. The study was conducted in a large national retail organization on professional manpower. The results of the delphi technique are compared with results generated by conventional regression based models and the actual experience of the organization, which serves as the criterion. The study also analyzes the Informational elements used by experts during the delphi procedures and develops a model based on these elements. The usefulness of the delphi in generating manpower forecasting models is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • George T. Milkovich & Anthony J. Annoni & Thomas A. Mahoney, 1972. "The Use of the Delphi Procedures in Manpower Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(4-Part-1), pages 381-388, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:19:y:1972:i:4-part-1:p:381-388
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.19.4.381
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    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Hung The & Lam, Bao Quoc & Nguyen, Quyen Le Hoang Thuy To & Nguyen, Phong Thanh & Huynh, Vy Dang Bich, 2022. "Career Path Choice in the Industry 4.0 using Grey Decision Making," MPRA Paper 116683, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2022.
    2. Flostrand, Andrew, 2017. "Finding the future: Crowdsourcing versus the Delphi technique," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 229-236.
    3. Vishal Gaur & Saravanan Kesavan & Ananth Raman & Marshall L. Fisher, 2007. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 480-491, April.
    4. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments," MPRA Paper 4328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Correa, Hector & Craft, James, 1999. "Input-output analysis for organizational human resources management," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 87-99, February.
    6. Hung, Hsin-Ling & Altschuld, James W. & Lee, Yi-Fang, 2008. "Methodological and conceptual issues confronting a cross-country Delphi study of educational program evaluation," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 191-198, May.

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