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Optimal Management of a Research and Development Project

Author

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  • Robert E. Lucas, Jr.

    (Carnegie-Mellon University)

Abstract

This paper offers a series of models designed to aid in the evaluation and control of an individual research and development project. The project under consideration is assumed to involve costs incurred over a period [0, T] and a return earned at T (or discounted to T) when the project is completed. In two of the models discussed below, the completion time T is regarded as known; in two others, T is taken to be a random variable with a known distribution. In two models, the costs per unit of time of operating the project are assumed to be fixed; in the other two, costs are variable, with increased expenditure resulting in a decreased completion time. Each of the four possible combinations of assumptions is treated in a separate section. The last section contains a summary and discussion of results.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 1971. "Optimal Management of a Research and Development Project," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(11), pages 679-697, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:17:y:1971:i:11:p:679-697
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.17.11.679
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    Cited by:

    1. Roy Cerqueti & Daniele Marazzina & Marco Ventura, 2016. "Optimal Investment in Research and Development Under Uncertainty," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 296-309, January.
    2. Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida & Ashton Hawk & Bernard Yeung, 2015. "The right speed and its value," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 159-176, February.
    3. Davies, Andrew & Manning, Stephan & Söderlund, Jonas, 2018. "When neighboring disciplines fail to learn from each other: The case of innovation and project management research," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 965-979.
    4. Scott A. Shane & Karl T. Ulrich, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: Technological Innovation, Product Development, and Entrepreneurship in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 133-144, February.
    5. Gene M. Grossman & Carl Shapiro, 1986. "Optimal Dynamic R&D Programs," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(4), pages 581-593, Winter.
    6. Naevdal, Eric, 2006. "Dynamic optimisation in the presence of threshold effects when the location of the threshold is uncertain - with an application to a possible disintegration of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1131-1158, July.
    7. Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida & Peter Zemsky, 2007. "The Timing of Resource Development and Sustainable Competitive Advantage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 651-666, April.
    8. Lichtenberg, Frank R., 1989. "IR & D project data and theories of R & D investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 271-282, April.
    9. Panos Kouvelis & Joseph Milner & Zhili Tian, 2017. "Clinical Trials for New Drug Development: Optimal Investment and Application," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 437-452, July.
    10. repec:pri:wwseco:dp224 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Karan Girotra & Christian Terwiesch & Karl T. Ulrich, 2007. "Valuing R& D Projects in a Portfolio: Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1452-1466, September.
    12. Eymen Errais & Jeffrey Sadowsky, 2005. "Valuing Pilot Project Investments in Incomplete Markets : A Compound Option Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 73, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. Francisco Ruiz‐Aliseda & Jianjun Wu, 2012. "Irreversible Investment in Stochastically Cyclical Markets," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 801-847, September.
    14. Vesa Kanniainen, 1993. "Optimal production of innovations under uncertainty," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 147-168, June.
    15. Dutta, Prajit K., 1997. "Optimal management of an R&D budget," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 575-602.
    16. Pelin G. Canbolat & Boaz Golany & Inbal Mund & Uriel G. Rothblum, 2012. "A Stochastic Competitive R&D Race Where “Winner Takes All”," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 700-715, June.
    17. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2007. "A theory of optimal deadlines," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 493-513, February.
    18. A. Messica & A. Mehrez & I. David, 2000. "Optimal Expenditure Patterns of a Double-Path Engineering Project," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 105(2), pages 441-455, May.

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