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Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings

Author

Listed:
  • William J. Infosino

    (AT&T Bell Laboratories)

Abstract

This paper compares consumer likelihood of purchase ratings for a proposed new product to their actual purchase behavior after the product was introduced. The ratings were obtained from a mail survey a few weeks before the product was introduced. The analysis leads to a model for forecasting new product sales. The model is supported by both empirical evidence and a reasonable theoretical foundation. In addition to calibrating the relationship between questionnaire ratings and actual purchases, the empirical evidence demonstrates the significant effect of alternative promotion/distribution vehicles on new product sales. The model uses questionnaire data to extend the results of a limited market trial to alternative target markets, product specifications, and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • William J. Infosino, 1986. "Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 372-384.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:5:y:1986:i:4:p:372-384
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.5.4.372
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4267 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Richard T. Carson, 2011. "Contingent Valuation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2489.
    3. Oindrila Dey & Debalina Chakravarty, 2020. "Electric Street Car as a Clean Public Transport Alternative: A Choice Experiment Approach," Working Papers 2042, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    4. Hanemann, W., 1994. "Contingent Valuation and Economics," CUDARE Working Papers 198636, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. W. Michael Hanemann, 1994. "Valuing the Environment through Contingent Valuation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 19-43, Fall.
    6. Cecere, Grazia & Corrocher, Nicoletta & Guerzoni, Marco, 2018. "Price or performance? A probabilistic choice analysis of the intention to buy electric vehicles in European countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 19-32.
    7. Richard Carson & Theodore Groves, 2007. "Incentive and informational properties of preference questions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(1), pages 181-210, May.
    8. Armstrong, J. Scott & Morwitz, Vicki G. & Kumar, V., 2000. "Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 383-397.
    9. Arts, Joep W.C. & Frambach, Ruud T. & Bijmolt, Tammo H.A., 2011. "Generalizations on consumer innovation adoption: A meta-analysis on drivers of intention and behavior," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 134-144.
    10. Sun, Baohong & Morwitz, Vicki G., 2010. "Stated intentions and purchase behavior: A unified model," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 356-366.
    11. Daniel McFadden & Albert Bemmaor & Francis Caro & Jeff Dominitz & Byung-Hill Jun & Arthur Lewbel & Rosa Matzkin & Francesca Molinari & Norbert Schwarz & Robert Willis & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 183-196, December.
    12. Runyu Chen & Wei Xu, 2017. "The determinants of online customer ratings: a combined domain ontology and topic text analytics approach," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 31-50, March.
    13. Etienne Bressoud, 2007. "Identification des variables produits et attitudinales explicatives des ventes : proposition d'un cadre conceptuel appliqué aux jeux vidéo," Post-Print halshs-00305749, HAL.
    14. He, Jiaxun & Wang, Cheng Lu, 2015. "Cultural identity and consumer ethnocentrism impacts on preference and purchase of domestic versus import brands: An empirical study in China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1225-1233.
    15. B. Douglas Bernheim & Daniel Bjorkegren & Jeffrey Naecker & Antonio Rangel, 2013. "Non-Choice Evaluations Predict Behavioral Responses to Changes in Economic Conditions," NBER Working Papers 19269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Denis Darpy, 2000. "Importance de la procrastination dans le processus de décision d'achat. Approche sémiotique et mesure," Post-Print hal-01517110, HAL.
    17. Martin R. Young & Wayne S. DeSarbo & Vicki G. Morwitz, 1998. "The Stochastic Modeling of Purchase Intentions and Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(2), pages 188-202, February.

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