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Decision Modeling: Tools for Strategic Thinking

Author

Listed:
  • Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

    (University Center for Policy Research, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, New York 12222)

  • Sandor Schuman

    (Decision Techtronics Group, Rockefeller Institute of Government, 411 State Street, Albany, New York 12203)

  • George P. Richardson

    (Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, State University of New York at Albany)

  • Stanley A. Dorf

    (Bureau of Policy Analysis, New York State Insurance Department, 160 West Broadway, New York, New York 10013)

Abstract

For 10 years, the Decision Techtronics Group (DTG) has helped public organizations use decision modeling to improve group decision making. When the New York State Insurance Department faced the task of making recommendations to resolve the medical-malpractice crisis, it developed, with the help of DTG, a system dynamics simulation model and a multiattribute utility (MAU) model to analyze policy options. Decision makers assessed the short- and long-term impact of proposed policy changes and their utility to various stakeholders. The department was able to make sound recommendations to the state legislature. This case demonstrates that the successful application of modeling to strategic decisions requires (1) an understanding of the various modeling techniques, (2) the ability to diagnose a real problem and to select appropriate techniques (3) the willingness to rethink the problem in terms of the modeling techniques, and (4) the construction of models with full participation of the decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Reagan-Cirincione & Sandor Schuman & George P. Richardson & Stanley A. Dorf, 1991. "Decision Modeling: Tools for Strategic Thinking," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 21(6), pages 52-65, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:21:y:1991:i:6:p:52-65
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.21.6.52
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. D F Andersen & J A M Vennix & G P Richardson & E A J A Rouwette, 2007. "Group model building: problem structuring, policy simulation and decision support," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(5), pages 691-694, May.
    2. Bose, Utpal & Davey, Anne M. & Olson, David L., 1997. "Multi-attribute utility methods in group decision making: Past applications and potential for inclusion in GDSS," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 691-706, December.
    3. Proudlove, N.C. & Bisogno, S. & Onggo, B.S.S. & Calabrese, A. & Levialdi Ghiron, N., 2017. "Towards fully-facilitated discrete event simulation modelling: Addressing the model coding stage," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 583-595.
    4. A.A. Zagonel & J. Rohrbaugh & G.P. Richardson & D.F. Andersen, 2004. "Using simulation models to address “what if” questions about welfare reform," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 890-901.
    5. Federico Cosenz & Guido Noto, 2016. "Applying System Dynamics Modelling to Strategic Management: A Literature Review," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(6), pages 703-741, November.
    6. S P Santos & V Belton & S Howick, 2008. "Enhanced performance measurement using OR: a case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(6), pages 762-775, June.
    7. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    8. David C. Lane, 2022. "Fons et origo: reflections on the 60th anniversary of Industrial Dynamics," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 38(3), pages 292-324, July.

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