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An Analysis of a Strategic Decision in the Sport of Curling

Author

Listed:
  • Keith A. Willoughby

    (Department of Management, Bucknell University, Lewisburg, Pennsylvania 17837)

  • Kent J. Kostuk

    (Federated Co-operatives Limited, 401 22nd Street East, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, S7K 3M9)

Abstract

We apply decision analysis to an important decision in the sport of curling. In particular, we examine the choice between taking a single point or blanking an end in the latter stages of a curling game. There are benefits and drawbacks associated with each alternative. Taking a single point provides the team with an additional point but transfers the last-shot advantage to the opposition. Blanking an end foregoes an additional point but retains the last-shot advantage. Based on the observation of world-class competitions, North American curlers will always attempt to blank an end, while their European counterparts have been known to opt for the single point. We develop a decision tree to conceptualize the choices. Then, we use data from over 900 national championship curling games to empirically determine the expected values of each alternative. Our results indicate that blanking the end is the better alternative.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith A. Willoughby & Kent J. Kostuk, 2005. "An Analysis of a Strategic Decision in the Sport of Curling," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 58-63, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:2:y:2005:i:1:p:58-63
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1050.0032
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles D. Feinstein, 1990. "Deciding Whether to Test Student Athletes for Drug Use," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 20(3), pages 80-87, June.
    2. W. J. Hurley, 1998. "Optimal Sequential Decisions and the Content of the Fourth-and-Goal Conference," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(6), pages 19-22, December.
    3. Keith A. Willoughby & Kent J. Kostuk, 2004. "Preferred Scenarios in the Sport of Curling," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 117-122, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clement David, 2012. "An Analysis of Curling Strategy," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, October.
    2. L. Robin Keller, 2011. "Investment and Defense Strategies, Heuristics, and Games: From the Editor ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 1-3, March.
    3. L. Robin Keller, 2009. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 121-123, September.

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    2. Clement David, 2012. "An Analysis of Curling Strategy," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, October.

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    Keywords

    recreation and sports; application;

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