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Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities

Author

Listed:
  • Maria del Carmen Gomez-Rios

    (Universidad Anáhuac, México)

  • Dora Carmen Galvez-Cruz

    (Universidad Anáhuac, México)

Abstract

Esta investigación presenta proyectos de largo plazo. Aplica modelos estocásticos mediante simulación de Monte Carlo para identificar el impacto que los cambios en los parámetros de entrada tienen en la variable de salida (LCOEE). Utiliza análisis de tornados para identificar el impacto de las variables de entrada. Los resultados muestran; en termoeléctrica de carbón, que el LCOEE es más sensible a los cambios en el precio de las emisiones de CO2 que a la tasa de descuento. En el ciclo combinado, el LCOEE es más sensible al factor de planta que al precio de las emisiones de CO2. En la central nuclear, la tasa de descuento tiene mayor impacto en el LCOE que el costo unitario de inversión. A diferencia de trabajos anteriores, se usa el riesgo país de México en la tasa de descuento. Limitaciones: los costos relacionados con la transmisión, distribución y tarifa de respaldo no están incluidos. Concluyendo que los modelos estocásticos brindan información útil para la toma de decisiones al incorporar datos históricos y proyecciones de las principales variables que podrían afectar al LCOEE.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria del Carmen Gomez-Rios & Dora Carmen Galvez-Cruz, 2021. "Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, Octubre -.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:16:y:2021:i:4:a:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Simulación Monte Carlo; costo nivelado; energía eléctrica; centrales generadoras de carga base; externalidades ambientales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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