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Public Deficits in USMCA Economies During the COVID-19 Economic Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Alberto Vázquez Muñoz

    (Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, México)

  • Nancy Ivonne Muller Durán

    (Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, México)

  • Josué Zavaleta González

    (Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, México)

Abstract

Nuestro objetivo es evaluar la polótica fiscal implementada por las economícas del T-MEC para enfrentar la crisis del COVID-19. Estimamos la capacidad económica (producto potencial) y el Balance Primario Cíclico como porcentaje del PIB (CPB) de estas economías. Obtenemos el Balance Primario Ajustado por el Ciclo como porcentaje del PIB (CAPB) como la diferencia entre el Balance Primario (PB) y el CPB. A diferencia de estimaciones previas del CPB, el producto potencial se obtiene mediante la metodología de la Capacidad Económica (Shaikh y Moudud, 2004), que resuelve problemas asociados con metodologías alternativas. Nuestro análisis empírico muestra que existe una asimetría: en Canadá y Estados Unidos la política fiscal es anticíclica y en México es procíclica. México debería abandonar su política fiscal actual; implementar una alternativa de apoyo a los hogares y empresas durante los períodos de crisis y ejecutar una reforma fiscal progresiva. Una limitación de nuestro artículo es que usamos PB y no sus componentes para estimar el CPB; sin embargo, utilizamos series de tiempo más largas, lo que contribuye a obtener resultados más robustos.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Alberto Vázquez Muñoz & Nancy Ivonne Muller Durán & Josué Zavaleta González, 2021. "Public Deficits in USMCA Economies During the COVID-19 Economic Crisis," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:16:y:2021:i:3:a:1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Primary balance; Fiscal Policy; USMCA economies; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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