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Effect of the Business Cycle on Investment Strategies: Evidence from Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio Cervantes

    (Tecnológico de Monterrey Campus Guadalajara, Departamento de Contabilidad y Finanzas)

  • Miguel Ángel Montoya

    (Tecnológico de Monterrey Campus Guadalajara, Departamento de Contabilidad y Finanzas)

  • L. Arturo Bernal Ponce

    (Tecnológico de Monterrey Campus Guadalajara, Departamento de Contabilidad y Finanzas)

Abstract

El objetivo principal de ésta investigación es analizar si el ciclo económico tiene un efecto sobre las estrategias de inversión. Para conseguir el objetivo usamos como metodología un análisis de series de tiempo multifactorial. En particular, buscamos verificar si las estrategias de inversión de ciclos de corto plazo y las estrategias de inversión de ciclos de largo plazo se observan en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. Usamos como muestra datos de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, del periodo de 1993 - 2006. Los resultados muestran evidencia estadística de oportunidades para estrategias de inversión de ciclos de corto plazo, pero no para estrategias de inversión de ciclos de largo plazo. Una de las implicaciones de estos hallazgos es que estos resultados se suman a los trabajos que cuestionan la hipótesis de mercados eficientes. En suma, este trabajo aporta más evidencia a la literatura que ha encontrado una relación entre el sector financiero con la actividad económica, en particular se documenta evidencia de una relación entre el ciclo económico y estrategias de inversión de corto plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Cervantes & Miguel Ángel Montoya & L. Arturo Bernal Ponce, 2016. "Effect of the Business Cycle on Investment Strategies: Evidence from Mexico," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 11(2), pages 39-49, Julio-Sep.
  • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:11:y:2016:i:2:p:39-49
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    File URL: http://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/85/154
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Finance; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Market Efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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