IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ime/imemes/v34y2016p1-38.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simultaneous Estimation of Cost of Equity and Expected Earnings of Individual Firms with the Residual Income Model

Author

Listed:
  • Tetsuya Adachi

    (Bank of Japan; (currently, Financial Services Agency, Government of Japan))

  • Takashi Asano

    (Tokyo Metropolitan University)

  • Tatsushi Okuda

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

On the basis of the residual income model, we propose a statistical model for inferring implied cost of equity (COE) from cross- sectional data on stock prices and firms' attributes. The model is estimated using a quasimaximum likelihood approach to simultaneously identify the COE, expected earnings growth rates, and expected excess earnings durations of individual Japanese firms listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (excluding the financial industry sector). The estimation results show that the individual firms' attributes, such as industry sector, cash-flow/price ratio, and dividend/ price ratio, are key determinants of the COE. Besides, we find that the distribution of individual firms' COE has changed over time, which suggests that it is crucial to take account of market conditions and financial situations of the firms in the estimation. Moreover, our estimates of the firms' COE have a positive relation with expected returns on their stocks, and the relation is stronger than those obtained with existing models.

Suggested Citation

  • Tetsuya Adachi & Takashi Asano & Tatsushi Okuda, 2016. "Simultaneous Estimation of Cost of Equity and Expected Earnings of Individual Firms with the Residual Income Model," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 34, pages 1-38, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:34:y:2016:p:1-38
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me34-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. "Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-1764, December.
    2. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    3. Fernandez, Pablo & del Campo, Javier, 2011. "Market risk premium used in 2010 by professors: A survey with 1,500 answers," IESE Research Papers D/911, IESE Business School.
    4. James A. Ohlson, 1991. "The theory of value and earnings, and an introduction to the Ball†Brown analysis," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    6. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    7. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    8. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    9. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
    10. Richard D. F. Harris, 1999. "The Accuracy, Bias and Efficiency of Analysts’ Long Run Earnings Growth Forecasts," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5‐6), pages 725-755, June.
    11. JULES H. Van BINSBERGEN & RALPH S. J. KOIJEN, 2010. "Predictive Regressions: A Present‐Value Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1439-1471, August.
    12. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    13. Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A. & Zhang, Yinglei, 2012. "The implied cost of capital: A new approach," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 504-526.
    14. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    15. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Dividend Yields, Dividend Growth, and Return Predictability in the Cross Section of Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1-2), pages 33-60, April.
    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:2:p:507-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Dechow, Patricia M. & Sloan, Richard G., 1997. "Returns to contrarian investment strategies: Tests of naive expectations hypotheses," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-27, January.
    18. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    19. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    20. Jung, Boochun & Shane, Philip B. & Sunny Yang, Yanhua, 2012. "Do financial analysts' long-term growth forecasts matter? Evidence from stock recommendations and career outcomes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 55-76.
    21. La Porta, Rafael, 1996. "Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-1742, December.
    22. Leonard, William N, 1971. "Research and Development in Industrial Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 232-256, March-Apr.
    23. Fernandez, Pablo & del Campo, Javier, 2011. "Market risk premium used in 2010 by analysts and companies: A survey with 2.400 answers," IESE Research Papers D/912, IESE Business School.
    24. Christine A. Botosan & Marlene A. Plumlee & HE Wen, 2011. "The Relation between Expected Returns, Realized Returns, and Firm Risk Characteristics," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 1085-1122, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan A. Kempkes & Francesco Suprano & Andreas Wömpener, 2023. "An empirical evaluation of dynamic approaches for estimating firms’ expected cost of equity capital," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 859-886, November.
    2. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    3. Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
    4. David Schröder & Florian Esterer, 2016. "A New Measure of Equity and Cash Flow Duration: The Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 857-900, August.
    5. Jang, Soomi & Choi, Heeick & Kim, Hyungtae, 2024. "Managerial ability and cost of equity capital," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    7. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    8. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    9. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2007. "Stock returns, dividend yield, and book-to-market ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 455-475, February.
    10. Terry Shevlin, 2013. "Some personal observations on the debate on the link between financial reporting quality and the cost of equity capital," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(3), pages 447-473, December.
    11. Jiang, Danling, 2013. "The second moment matters! Cross-sectional dispersion of firm valuations and expected returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3974-3992.
    12. Pengguo Wang, 2018. "Future Realized Return, Firm‐specific Risk and the Implied Expected Return," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(1), pages 105-132, March.
    13. Wang, Yuenan & Di Iorio, Amalia, 2007. "The cross section of expected stock returns in the Chinese A-share market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 335-349, March.
    14. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    15. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    16. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Philip Gharghori & Sebastian Stryjkowski & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2013. "Value versus growth: Australian evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(2), pages 393-417, June.
    18. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    19. Mohsen Jafarian & Fauzias Mat Nor & Izani Ibrahim, 2018. "The Relative Importance of Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News at Driving Stock Price Change," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 56-72.
    20. Martin Wallmeier, 2000. "Determinanten erwarteter Renditen am deutschen Aktienmarkt — Eine empirische Untersuchung anhand ausgewählter Kennzahlen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 27-57, February.
    21. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Implied cost of equity; Residual income model; Quasimaximum likelihood approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:34:y:2016:p:1-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kinken (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.