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International Inflation Spillovers: The Role of Different Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Gregor Bäurle

    (Swiss National Bank)

  • Matthias Gubler

    (Swiss National Bank)

  • Diego R. Känzig

    (London Business School)

Abstract

How do international price fluctuations spill over to country-specific inflation? We show that accounting for the drivers of international inflation and their effects on overall economic conditions is crucial to getting a more thorough view of spillover effects. We find substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude of spillovers, depending on the shocks driving inflation abroad. While all identified shocks are inflationary, their effects on activity, interest rates, and exchange rates differ. Disaggregated price responses suggest that these general equilibrium effects are important. We show this by looking at spillovers to Switzerland using a structural dynamic factor model relating disaggregated prices to key macroeconomic factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "International Inflation Spillovers: The Role of Different Shocks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 191-230, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2021:q:1:a:6
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    Cited by:

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    3. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    4. Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2023. "Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Lilian Muchimba & Mimoza Shabani & Alexis Stenfors & Jan Toporowski, 2024. "Decomposing the Rate of Inflation: Price-Setting and Monetary Policy," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2024-04, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    6. Ichiro Fukunaga & Yosuke Kido & Kotaro Suita, 2024. "Japan's Inflation under Global Inflation Synchronization," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    7. Sara Serra & João Quelhas, 2023. "The inflation process in Portugal: the role of price spillovers," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "International Inflation Spillovers: The Role of Different Shocks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 191-230, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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