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Options-Implied Probability Density Functions for Real Interest Rates

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  • Jonathan H. Wright

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

This paper constructs options-implied probability density functions for real interest rates. These use options on TIPS, which were launched in 2009. Data availability limits us to studying short-maturity probability density functions for intermediate- to long-term TIPS yields. The PDFs imply high uncertainty about real rates. I also estimate empirical pricing kernels using these option prices along with time-series models fitted to real interest rates. The empirical pricing kernel implies that investors have high marginal utility in states of the world with high real rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan H. Wright, 2016. "Options-Implied Probability Density Functions for Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 129-149, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2016:q:3:a:3
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    Cited by:

    1. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Maxim Ulrich & Simon Walther, 2020. "Option-implied information: What’s the vol surface got to do with it?," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 323-355, October.

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